Bullish Bets Surge On BYD Ahead Of Earnings As Strong Revenue Forecast And Analyst Calls Lift Sentiment

After a steep share decline in recent months, sentiment toward BYD is turning more positive ahead of its earnings release later Friday.

Options data show bullish contracts near their highest level since May 2024 relative to bearish bets, while hedging costs have eased from April highs. With shares still down 28% from a May peak, expectations for results are low, Bloomberg reported.

Macquarie Capital's head of China equity strategy, Eugene Hsiao, said his firm is optimistic, citing stronger overseas growth, potential currency gains from European sales due to yuan weakness, and BYD's benchmark index weight, which could attract buyers as market sentiment improves.

Short interest has also eased to 3.2% of shares available, down from almost 7% in late July.

Investors will watch closely for trends in average selling prices and profit per vehicle to assess the impact of promotions. BYD delivered 2.1 million cars in the first half of the year and aims to reach 5.5 million by 2025.

Forecasts And Analyst Views

Koyfin estimates that BYD will report revenues of $33.32 billion for the upcoming quarter, up 42% from $23.47 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) is forecast to fall 29% year-on-year to $1.07 billion from $1.52 billion, while GAAP EPS last quarter was $0.14.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank projects BYD's August wholesale volume at about 345,000 units, flat month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year. 

The firm reported that wholesale sales reached 230,000 units in the first three weeks, while domestic retail sales totaled 207,000 units. Full-month domestic deliveries are expected to reach 320,000 units, up 22% from July but down 14% year-over-year. 

New order flow improved slightly, rising 3% month-on-month to 355,000 units. Overseas sales are forecast to remain in the 80,000–90,000 unit range amid continued dealer destocking.

In July, BYD sold 344,296 new energy vehicles, representing a 0.56% year-over-year increase but a 10% decrease from June. Overseas sales were 80,737 units, surging 169% year-on-year but slipping 10% from June.

Koyfin data also shows BYD holds an average analyst rating of 4.62, indicating a 'Strong Buy' signal. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it 'Buy,' five 'Strong Buy,' one 'Hold,' and one 'Strong Sell.' 

Global Expansion

Adding to its international push, BYD officially entered Argentina on Wednesday, with three models, including the Dolphin Mini (known as the Seagull in China), the Yuan Pro (also known as the Yuan Up), and the plug-in hybrid Song Pro DM-i, according to a CnEVPost report.  

Pre-orders are underway, and country manager Deng Yuan said Argentina will be key to regional expansion, alongside the development of charging infrastructure.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for BYD was last 'bullish' amid 'high' message volume.

BYD's U.S.-listed stock has risen 30.4% so far in 2025.

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