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None of these weapons, alone, can stop the Russian army, as NATO analysts nowadays understand. Thus, the current strategy employed by Ukraine against Russia's critical infrastructure, aimed at raising the cost of the war and demoralizing the Russian public, is not enough to stop the advance of Russian forces.

In the past, NATO planners helped plan (using simulation models) and execute special offensives (including advanced real-time intelligence) to try and deter Russia. The most notable have been attacks in Crimea aimed at the port of Sevastopol and Russian military installations (especially air defenses), and other major offensives in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, and Donetsk regions.

They were also involved in earlier successful campaigns such as the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and the Battle of Kyiv. More recently, Ukrainian incursions into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2025 represent a significant escalation and were successful for some months in holding Russian territory.

The Russians managed to roll back everything from 2023, but at significant cost. In addition, in Kursk, the Russians relied heavily on North Korean troops who took heavy casualties, so much so that Kim Jong Un sought to turn defeat into a sort of moral victory, holding highly emotional funeral ceremonies in Pyongyang.

NATO views Russia's use of North Korean troops as an admission that Russia faces manpower shortages and instability in the Russian army, and that Russia is taking heavy casualties in the Ukraine war.

NATO may be reading Putin's statements that he has no intention of attacking Europe now or in the future as an admission that he cannot attack Europe with an army that is too small and one that the Ukraine war has broken. Part of the pushback can be found in the Saratoga Foundation report, “A Systems View of Russia's Early Failure in Ukraine.”

Now, Russian sources are reporting two developments that indicate that a new offensive will soon materialize, heavily supported by NATO, and aimed at Crimea. Those sources say that the US and its NATO partners have significantly increased overhead intelligence gathering, preparing for the coming attack.

Here is one Russian report on a Telegram channel called Archangel of Special Forces (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА):

​In addition, Newsweek reports that a British Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint, an electronic intelligence-gathering aircraft, flew a two-hour sortie off the coast of Romania ... about 150 miles west of Russia's Black Sea Fleet garrison of Sevastopol, according to GPS signals captured on Flightradar24.

According to Status-6 (Military & Conflict News a Russian Sukhoi fighter jet intercepted a US Navy Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft/ASW plane over the Black Sea on August 28. The Russians see US-led heavy surveillance operations as preparing for a major operation against Crimea.

The Ukrainian reconnaissance ship Simferopol

Russian mil bloggers say that Ukraine has been“preparing for this attack over the past few weeks. Landing craft have been ready for a long time, USVs were stationed in the waiting area at the mouth of the Danube. Even special forces of the GUR [Military Intelligence] arrived in the Odesa region as part of this preparation.”

Meanwhile, on August 28, the Russians sank the Simferopol , a Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel, near the mouth of the Danube River, using a sea drone.

All of this involves the US and NATO together, and despite high-level US statements that Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia in any peace deal, it appears that the US and NATO are preparing for a major Crimea attack.

In plain terms, the Russians are reading these developments as a possible renewed attempt by the US and NATO to shift the“correlation of forces” in the Ukraine war with the intent of forcing major concessions from the Russians, not from the Ukrainians.

We will have to wait to see how a new offensive on Crimea will unfold (if it does) and if the Russians can counter a major attack there. But it does clearly signal that peace talks, at least for now, are dead and that NATO wants to“win” its war against Russia. It seems Washington has decided not only to go along with its European allies but to participate in a major way.