(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be facing his major test in diplomacy at the coming summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to be held in Tianjin in China on August 31 and September 1 this year. The SCO meet will be hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping and will be attended by Russian President Putin as also the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif. The 10 member SCO is expected to play a major role in shaping the policy of global South to meet the US President Donald Trump's unilateral imposition of high tariffs on the other countries including India.

For the Indian Prime Minister, the timing of this SCO summit is significant. The U.S. administration has officially announced the 25 per cent additional tariff on India with effect from August 27 making the total tariff to 50 per cent on Indian exports to the US from this Wednesday. This additional tariff is in the form of a penalty imposed on India for buying Russian crude oil which India is getting at cheaper prices. In 2024-25 India imported around 40 per cent of its oil imports from Russia. Narendra Modi and the external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar have strongly defended the imports from Russia as India's sovereign right and rebuffed the US position on oil imports.

Taking into account the anti- India tilt of Trump administration in the last three and half months since the ceasefire between India and Pakistan on May 10 this year, Prime Minister has been taking a nationalist position and talking of not surrendering the interest of Indian farmers to the US pressure for entry into the Indian agriculture and dairy sectors through new trade deal. Since India did not agree to the US terms, the concluding India-US trade talks earlier scheduled for August 25 in New Delhi has been unilaterally postponed by the US trade department. There is no sign that the India-US trade talks will resume.

In a period of just six months since February13 this year when the Indian PM had a gala meeting with the US President Donald Trump at the White House to the lunch hosted by Trump at his Oval office to the Pakistan army chief Asim Munir, the India –US relations both economic and political have turned full circle when Trump is not in talking terms with his friend Narendra while the Chinese government has extended support to India by terming the imposition of additional25 per cent penalty as bullying by Trump and President Putin called Narendra Modi and discussed issues of bilateral cooperation at this hour of crisis for India.

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From all the statements and optics of the Prime Minister in the last three months in the context of the deterioration in India-US relations, it might seem that India is doing away with its closeness with USA and getting closer to China and Russia to counter US strategy. But the real ground situation is not that simple. It is a hard choice for Narendra Modi. He and his BJP are more comfortable in the company of Donald Trump than in any close association with China or Russia at the cost of USA. For the Prime Minister, the SCO summit poses a big test. Whatever he says will have impact on the shaping of geopolitics with its impact on India-US relations. Trump took note of the last July summit of BRICS and warned the members about any move on dedollarisation in their foreign currency trade.

For India, the present foreign policy under Narendra Modi is too much enmeshed in the US led Indo-Pacific strategy. Prime Minister will be visiting Japan for two days on August 29 and 30 before reaching Tianjin on August 31 for attending the SCO summit. Japan is a member of four nation QUAD along with the USA, Australia and India. India is scheduled to host QUAD summit this year. Indian PM will have discussions with the Japanese PM on that also apart from the issues of India-Japan bilateral cooperation.

China and Japan have strained relations. China also sees QUAD as a sort of security bloc against China led by USA in which Japan plays its role to contain China in South China Sea and international waters in Asia-Pacific. On the eve of his significant visit to China, Narendra Modi has to skillfully avoid the issues in Japan visit which antagonize President Xi Jinping.

Established 24 years ago by China and its five neighbouring countries, the SCO now has 10 member states, two observer states and 14 dialogue partners from Asia, Europe and Africa. It has grown into a regional cooperation organization with the largest population and geographic coverage, as well as the greatest development potential. Leaders from more than 20 countries and heads of ten international organisations will attend the SCO summit 2025 summit will be the largest one since the establishment of SCO in 2001.

According to the SCO sources, President Xi will jointly sign and issue a declaration with leaders of other SCO member states, approve a development strategy of the SCO for the next 10 years, issue statements marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War and the 80th founding anniversary of the United Nations, and adopt a series of outcome documents on strengthening security, economic, people-to-people and cultural cooperation

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In his keynote speeches, President Xi will elaborate on China's new vision and propositions for the SCO in carrying forward the Shanghai Spirit, embracing the mission of the times, and responding to the people's expectations, according to SCO secretariat.

The Shanghai Spirit, which emphasizes mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations and pursuit of common development, is the very root and soul of the SCO and has demonstrated timeless value throughout its development course, say the SCO sources about 2025 summit.

Indian Prime Minister has to be a part of the joint declaration to be issued from the summit. India's views have to be incorporated in the declaration on both strategy of SCO to fight the trade war launched by Trump as also on how to combat terrorism in the region. Pakistan Prime Minister may make efforts to influence the fight against terrorism part of declaration in their favour. Indian PM with his higher stature compared to Pak PM, is expected to impart the right perspective in the declaration favouring Indian position.

It will be seen how India reacts to the draft declaration which will be mainly written by the host country China. It will be a delicate balancing act for the Indian Prime Minister. The diplomatic community globally will be watching closely Indian Prime Minister's performance at the SCO summit as also his bilateral talks with President XI Jinping and President Putin.

For Narendra Modi, he has to take decision before the SCO summit itself what will be his stand at QUAD summit later this year. The agenda for the US led QUAD summit hosted by the Indian Prime Minister in India this year is contrary to the objective and policies to be enunciated at the SCO joint declaration on September 1. After fully committing to that, how can the Indian PM be a party to the US global strategy through QUAD to encircle China. This is Hobson's choice for PM Modi as also India. That way Narendra Modi's moment of truth has arrived. He has to take a firm position. Will he? (IPA Service )

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