US Tariffs Won't Stop China's Long Game In SE Asia

2025-08-12 08:12:37

(MENAFN- Asia Times) As the United States presses its“reciprocal tariffs” campaign against ASEAN members, Washington's hard-nosed trade tactics are sending ripples far beyond the negotiating rooms of Singapore, Jakarta and Hanoi.

US negotiators may frame this as an effort to win better market access for American goods and chip away at Chinese expansion in Southeast Asia, but Beijing is watching closely and repositioning itself to turn US-ASEAN tensions to its long-term advantage.

The Trump administration's strategy has been characteristically direct: levy hefty tariffs first and then issue a laundry list of concessions in return for partial relief.

This year, on April 2, the US implemented“reciprocal tariffs” ranging up to 49% on imports from certain ASEAN nations, including Vietnam and Cambodia, while others, such as Singapore, were subject to 10% duties.

Those came down after negotiations but are still in the range of 19-24% for top trading partners like Thailand (19%), the Philippines (19%), Vietnam (20%) and Malaysia (24%).

For most ASEAN economies, where the US is a key export market, forfeiting preferential access jeopardizes GDP growth, jobs and even political stability. The US calls for restricting Chinese exports and future compliance with possible future sanctions against Beijing puts ASEAN directly in the middle of a raging competition.

This is where China sees both a challenge and an opening. For 15 consecutive years, China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner. In the first quarter of 2025, two-way trade hit $234 billion , with full-year figures projected to surpass $1 trillion, far ahead of US-ASEAN trade volumes.

The US push to force ASEAN to cut Chinese goods directly targets the integrated supply chains that underpin this relationship. But rather than counter with public threats, Beijing is moving toward a more subtle, calculated response: embedding itself more deeply in ASEAN's economic fabric in ways that US tariff policy will struggle to unwind.

Another important prong is accelerating local production within ASEAN. Chinese enterprises are establishing or setting up factories inside Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, not to lower labor expenses, but to meet“rules of origin” for more products to contribute in the global supply chain.

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