Google Admits Inaccurate Earthquake Alerts in Türkiye 2023

(MENAFN) Google admitted on Monday that its earthquake early warning system failed to deliver accurate alerts during the catastrophic 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye.

The system had the capacity to issue the highest-level alert to as many as 10 million residents within a 157-kilometer (98-mile) radius of the epicenter, potentially providing up to 35 seconds for people to take protective action. Instead, just 469 Take Action alerts were issued for the initial 7.8 magnitude earthquake.

In a statement to media, Google revealed that approximately 500,000 users received a lower-tier warning designed for “light shaking,” which does not trigger the same prominent notifications as the more urgent alerts.

Previously, Google had told media that the system had "performed well" after a review conducted in 2023.

Google promotes its earthquake alert system as a "global safety net" available in nearly 100 countries, often stepping in where national early warning infrastructure is absent.

Managed independently of government agencies, the Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system runs on Android devices, which represent over 70% of mobile phones used in Türkiye.

The twin earthquakes that struck southeastern Türkiye on February 6, 2023, caused over 55,000 fatalities and left more than 100,000 injured. Many victims were trapped and killed in collapsing buildings while asleep.

Despite being operational during the events, Google’s early warning system failed to accurately gauge the intensity of the quakes.

Google researchers detailed these failures in a paper published in the journal Science, pointing to "limitations to the detection algorithms."

For the first earthquake, the system estimated shaking intensity between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS), a drastic underestimation compared to the actual 7.8 magnitude.

The second major quake that day was also undervalued, resulting in just 8,158 Take Action alerts being sent out, while Be Aware alerts reached nearly four million users.

In response to the shortcomings, Google’s team updated the alert algorithm and reran simulations for the initial earthquake.

With the revised system, 10 million Take Action alerts were generated for those in greatest danger, along with 67 million Be Aware alerts for people farther from the epicenter.

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