Israel's War With Iran Holds Uncertain Outcome Even With US Support: The Guardian

Israel's assault on Iran, including its nuclear and ballistic weapons programme, is unlikely to achieve its long-term strategic goals, even if Benjamin Netanyahu convinces the Trump administration to join the conflict.

The Guardian reported on Saturday, June 21, that security analysts warn of increasing instability as Israel faces significant obstacles sustaining its long-range offensive.

Despite tactical success in hitting key Iranian sites and figures, experts stress this may not translate into strategic victory or regime change.

There are serious doubts about whether even America's most powerful bombs could destroy Iran's deeply buried Fordow facility without risking major retaliation.

Analysts caution that Iran's leadership and decentralised defence networks will be difficult to uproot solely through air strikes or leadership targeting.

Efforts to involve the United States in a regime-change operation could provoke widespread counterattacks, including against US bases across the Middle East.

In the absence of strong US support, Israel faces serious logistical strains and a gradual erosion of its military capacity over time, limiting its long-term operational effectiveness.

Israel may also expose itself to significant Iranian retaliation that could destabilise the entire region further, worsen existing humanitarian crises, and draw other actors into the widening conflict.

Experts, including Andreas Krieg of King's College London, conclude that long-term success cannot simply be achieved through air power alone without political and diplomatic solutions.

Diplomatic engagement, they argue, remains the only sustainable path forward, and any serious miscalculation could drag the region into a costly and protracted war.

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