How China Is Paving The Way For Bougainville Independence

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The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me'ekamui, or the“Holy Land” it once was.

Australia supported the PNG government's efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters .

After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favor PNG's territorial integrity.

Bougainville school children display a giant flag of Bougainville during the 2005 celebration of the swearing in of the new assembly for the island. Photo: Lloyd Jones / AAP via The Conversation

In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum . Australia's response, however, was ambiguous .

Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027 .

As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

Major issues to overcome

Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

The newly built gold refinery in Arawa town. Photo: Anna-Karina Hermkens, Author provided via The Conversation (no reuse)

Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict , as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance .

The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it's seeking foreign investors .

Open for business

Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles , Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville's political elite have increased over the years.

Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville's independence. Bougainville is showing interest .

Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is“aligning perfectly with Bougainville's nationhood aspirations.”

The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States , offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.