Signs Not Good For US-Iran Nuke Deal Badly Needed For Stability

The strong line taken by the Trump administration leaves little room for maneuver. It risks further emboldening hardline elements in Iran, who are perhaps less willing to engage diplomatically. But any belligerent rhetoric from voices in Iran risks pouring fuel on an already incendiary situation.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic faces a range of serious pressures domestically, such as that seen in the Woman, Life, Freedom movement . There's also increasingly vocal opposition from abroad – notably from the self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi , the son of the Shah who was ousted in 1979.

Though Iran may want a deal, it cannot capitulate – particularly after the events of the last year. Nor should it.

Hawks in the US, Israel and elsewhere have, of course, hailed the Trump administration's stance. Fears of an Iranian nuclear program continue to drive the actions of Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and others – although reports have just emerged that proposed Israeli strikes on targets in Iran were vetoed by Trump in favor of more negotiation.

While the Gulf states once would have celebrated a tough stance on Iran, the situation is different now. Iran's long-time rival, Saudi Arabia, has put aside decades of animosity in the hope of a more prosperous shared future.

In a 2023 agreement mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalize relations , reopening embassies and embarking on a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia and, in particular, its crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, regional stability is essential in realizing the ambitious Vision2030 program – which leans heavily into global investor confidence and trust.

As a result, the kingdom undertook a pragmatic shift in its regional affairs, embarking on a process of diplomatic rapprochement that surprised many observers. Riyadh has also taken steps towards normalization with Israel, though the ongoing destruction of Gaza has paused such moves , at least for now.

At the same time as the nuclear negotiations take place, Israeli strikes on targets in Syria continue . The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 and the back seat taken by its long-time supporter, Russia, have dramatically altered the political landscape of Syria.

Though its former president, Bashar al-Assad, has found refuge in Russia , Moscow has taken a watching brief, eager not to antagonize Syria's new regime and jeopardize its strategically important military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favored by the Assad regime, notably the Alawi communities, have fled to the Russian naval base at Latakia in search of protection.

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But thousands of others have been killed amid increasing violence as the forces of the new regime, led by Ahmad al-Shara , seek to extinguish all remnants of the Assad regime – a series of events that looks eerily similar to what occurred in Iraq 20 years ago, when the process of “de-Ba'athification” attempted to remove all traces of Saddam Hussein's regime from public life.

Fragile regional order

The situation across the region is precarious, with the actions of global powers continuing to reverberate. While Washington puts pressure on Tehran and Moscow waits, the scope for Chinese influence in the region increases .

Ironically, Trump's tariffs on China may push Beijing farther into the Middle East, as it seeks to capitalize on available opportunities. Its Belt and Road Initiative positions the Middle East firmly within China's strategic interests . This is likely to open up a new front in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

All the while, it is the people of the Middle East who continue to pay the heaviest price. Ongoing wars and insecurity, fears of a regional conflict, and precarious political conditions – as well as rising food prices and healthcare pressures – are creating a perfect storm that heightens the pressures and challenges of daily life.

Simon Mabon is a professor of international relations at Lancaster University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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