Bullet Curtain: China's Answer To US Drone Swarms In A Taiwan War

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Rinaldi and Vartanian mention that jamming technologies, such as those mounted on rifles and vehicles, are versatile but increasingly limited by autonomous UAVs' reduced signal dependence and susceptibility to swarms.

They add that while smoke screens are mobile and effective in obscuration, they are short-lived and impractical against large-scale attacks.

Furthermore, they state that counter-swarm UAVs, such as the CH-901 loitering munition, show promise in countering drones but remain a nascent tactic with limited munitions and evolving strategies.

They also note that aerial nets offer nondestructive capture for intelligence but are limited by performance against high-speed targets and dynamic scenarios.

Rinaldi and Vartanian say that advanced laser systems, like the LW-30, provide cost-efficient and rapid engagement of drone swarms but require clear lines of sight and significant power, posing logistical challenges.

They point out that China's counter-UAS capabilities exhibit critical vulnerabilities, such as insufficient scalability, limited endurance in saturation scenarios and reliance on traditional methods ill-suited for modern UAV swarm operations.

However, Bullet Curtain may have significant advantages over China's existing counter-UAS capabilities.

Ranjana Nallamalli and other writers, in a July 2023 article in the peer-reviewed Defense Science Journal, stress the effectiveness of systems like China's AHEAD, noting their ability to generate dense fragment fields that lower accuracy requirements and neutralize multiple small drones efficiently.

Such a system may be necessary for China considering the US's plans to use drone swarms in a possible Taiwan conflict.

In May 2022, The War Zone (TWZ) mentioned that US Air Force and RAND Corporation simulations highlight drone swarms as decisive in Taiwan defense scenarios.

According to the report, low-cost, autonomous UAVs linked by distributed mesh networks rapidly identify and strike Chinese targets like invasion fleets and transport aircraft, even without air superiority.

These UAVs, acting as sensors, jammers, and decoys, exhaust enemy air defenses while enabling stealth operations by manned aircraft such as F-35s.

In August 2023, the US Department of Defense (DOD) unveiled the Replicator initiative , which targets China's military buildup by leveraging thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across all domains within 18 to 24 months.

According to the DOD, these unmanned, cost-efficient systems are designed to offset China's strategic advantage on a military scale, comprised of its mass of ships, missiles, and personnel.

The DOD says that by relying on innovation and autonomy, the US aims to create a“mass of our own” combining rapid production and deployment capabilities with reduced human risk.

In line with its Replicator initiative, in May 2024, the DOD chose to accelerate the fielding of the Switchblade-600 loitering munition , produced by AeroVironment Inc, as part of its first tranche of Replicator capabilities.

As for the second tranche of Replicator drones, the DOD announced in November 2024 that systems under consideration include Anduril Industries' Ghost-X and the Performance Drone Works C-100 systems.