Lack Of Trust Looms Over High-Stakes Iran-US Nuclear Negotiations

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The US president's much-discussed transactional approach to diplomacy – as represented at the talks by Witkoff, a former real-estate developer – is likely to have pivotal effects on how negotiations proceed. Trump's geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East focus on expanding the Abraham Accords . Those agreements focused on normalizing relations between Israel and various Arab countries – including UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

The signing of the accords in 2020 was seen as a key foreign policy achievement of Trump's first administration, particularly in terms of America's desire to counter Iran in the region.

The US is now actively working to bring Saudi Arabia into the fold. In that respect, recognizing that Riyadh's participation would mark a transformative shift in regional geopolitics. Additionally, Trump aims to leverage trade agreements and major investment initiatives to create economic dependencies that encourage diplomatic normalization.

Iran, meanwhile, faces severe economic difficulties . The country's economy is in a state of crisis, with high inflation, a depreciating currency and widespread poverty. These conditions have been worsened by international sanctions and domestic policy failures. As a result, Iran is in dire need of economic concessions, which could be a significant point of leverage for the US.

Tehran's geopolitical clout has weakened considerably over the past 18 months. Military setbacks in 2024 – including the loss of key allies and leaders in groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah – have diminished Iran's ability to project power in its region.

This weakened position will affect Iran's negotiating stance. It could make it more likely that Iran's negotiators might seek economic relief and diplomatic solutions rather than pursuing aggressive policies. But pressure from hardliners within Iran could push the country towards a more radical approach if concessions are not forthcoming.

Rocky road ahead

A major issue affecting the talks is the low level of trust between the two parties. The United States' involvement in the Gaza conflict – including Trump's controversial proposal to clear Gaza of Palestinians to make way for possible redevelopment – has further strained relations. So has the recent US campaign against the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Further threats of this kind are likely to be seen by Iran as aggressive and coercive – and Trump's latest rhetoric won't have helped. This will inevitably undermine the prospects for trust between the parties.

Iranian parliamentarians on the prospect of nuclear talks with the US.

Iran's skepticism is rooted in past experiences in which promises of economic relief were not fulfilled. Trump's withdrawal of the US from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 is a case in point. This perceived breach of trust has made Iran cautious about entering into new agreements without concrete assurances.