Do Union Endorsements Make A Difference In Election Campaigns?

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Nearly one in three workers in Canada is covered by a union contract, making union members a potentially powerful voting bloc at election time. It should therefore come as little surprise that federal parties have been making overt efforts to secure endorsements from labour unions and the votes of their members as election day nears.

The Canadian Union of Public Employees , United Steelworkers and Amalgamated Transit Union have already declared support for the New Democratic Party (NDP), while the Boilermakers union has endorsed the Conservatives . All parties are expected to pick up more union endorsements before election day.

But do union endorsements actually make a difference at the ballot box?

Our forthcoming survey-based research suggests that while most union members in Canada indicate their voting preferences are not swayed by union endorsements, satisfaction with one's union significantly enhances the likelihood they'll support union-endorsed candidates in federal, provincial and local elections.

Shifts in party-union relations

The NDP was viewed as the political arm of the labour movement and secured the lion's share of union resources and endorsements for much of its history. However, as ties between the NDP and unions have loosened, so too have unions' political allegiances.

Read more: The NDP turns 60: It's never truly been the political arm of organized labour

In recent years, unions in Canada have made political endorsements that don't align with traditional patterns. For example, after a decade of backing the provincial Liberals, many construction unions endorsed Conservative Premier Doug Ford's re-election in the 2022 Ontario provincial election.

Although most other unions endorsed the opposition NDP, Ford's union support garnered significant attention and was presented as an impressive game-changer by the media and political pundits .

In the 2025 Ontario election campaign, Ford used his commanding lead in the polls and a transactional brand of politics to lock down endorsements from an even broader cross-section of the union movement, winning additional support from firefighters, a Toronto-based hotel worker union , police unions and three large Unifor locals .

Doug Ford speaks with local Conservative candidate David Piccini, left, and Dina Roushanroz, a Unifor official, while at Unifor Local 444's union hall in Windsor, Ont., in January 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dax Melmer

The union endorsements were symbolically significant for the Conservative campaign because they fractured labour movement opposition to Ford and provided pro-worker cover for a government with a decidedly mixed record on labour rights.

The Unifor endorsements, in particular, raised eyebrows because Canada's largest private sector union had long championed anti-Conservative strategic voting , backing a mix of Liberal, NDP and Bloc candidates in election campaigns over the past decade.

These shifts have encouraged Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to appeal more to blue-collar union members , especially in male-dominated industries, to broaden his party's working-class support.

Read more: Pierre Poilievre is popular among union members. What's it really all about?

The Conservatives have also no doubt been inspired by the success of United States President Donald Trump this regard.

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the vast majority of unions endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris over Trump. But exit polls indicated Trump still managed to win an impressive 45 per cent of the votes from union households, highlighting a potential disconnect between union leaders and their members on the question of endorsements.

The influence of union endorsements

Not all union endorsements carry the same weight, but they can play a strategically critical role in election campaigns depending on the dynamic.

Our survey-based research, to be published in an upcoming volume of Labour/Le Travail , reveals that while a small majority of union members in Canada feel union endorsements won't impact their vote, such endorsements do modestly influence a good number of union members.

Outside of Québec, 37 per cent of surveyed union members report being“somewhat” or“much more likely” to vote for union-endorsed candidates. In Québec, the figure is slightly lower at 27 per cent. Conversely, only a small portion of members (11 per cent in the rest of Canada and 13 per cent in Québec) indicate a union endorsement will make them less likely to vote for their union's preferred candidate.

Locked-out hotel workers and supporting unions picket outside the Fairmont Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montréal in December 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

Importantly, workers who indicated satisfaction with their union in the workplace are significantly more likely support union-endorsed candidates in election campaigns.

Satisfaction with one's union matters much more to whether union members respond to an endorsement favourably than demographic factors such as age, gender, income or education level.

The survey results also suggest that union type does not make a significant difference in assessing the influence of endorsements on union members' voting intentions. Members of public-sector unions are no more likely to respond favourably to union endorsements than members of private-sector unions, nor are members of construction unions or members of NDP-affiliated unions.

Lessons for parties and unions

Even with modest impacts on voting preferences, union endorsements may prove decisive in closely contested elections, especially in communities with large numbers of union voters.

For unions to maximize their political influence, however, they must first earn their members' trust through effective workplace representation. Building this trust enhances the impact of endorsements by increasing member support for union-endorsed candidates.

In short, having strongly supported unions in the workplace helps to build strong unions in the political arena with improved capacity to deliver union members' votes.

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