China Puts Philippines On Hypersonic Nuke Alert

The US Typhon missile system's presence in the Philippines has heightened tensions with China. In September 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi mentioned that the deployment of the Typhon“undermines regional peace and stability,” stating that the deployment“is not in the interests of regional countries.”

However, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro hit back at the remarks , stating that China is using“reverse psychology” to stop the Philippines from building its defense capabilities.

Teodoro challenged China to“lead by example,” saying that it should destroy its nuclear arsenal, remove its ballistic missile capabilities,“get out of the West Philippine Sea,” and get out of Mischief Reef, a contested feature in the South China Sea.

But in a thinly veiled signal of displeasure that same month, China held its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test since 1980 , launching an ICBM from Hainan that impacted 11,500 kilometers away, just outside of France's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around French Polynesia.

Undeterred, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr highlighted in January 2025 that China's missile technology greatly exceeds the Philippines. He proposed a quid pro quo: removing the US Typhon missile system in return for halting aggression in the South China Sea.

Despite strong words from Philippine leaders, China seems determined to pursue a hardline stance. Chinese Foreign Minister Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stressed in February 2025 that China“will not stand idly by when its interests are threatened,” adding that the Philippines is“placing its security in the hands of others.”

If China's claim that its new submarine carries hypersonic missiles is confirmed, the Philippines lacks credible air and missile defense capabilities to defend against such a threat.

As of 2022, the SM-6 missile is the only weapon in the US arsenal that can intercept hypersonic missiles , and even that capability is described as“nascent.” The US Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), designed to destroy hypersonic missiles in their glide phase, is still under development.

Should the Philippines reinforce its extended deterrence posture with the US with the Typhon as the foundation, it may acquire military assets supporting the Typhon missile system in its territories.

While the Philippines operates SPYDER surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, they are not designed to engage hypersonic threats. In addition to SPYDER, the Philippines plans to buy additional short-range SAMs , possibly India's Akash missile system . But, as with SPYDER, Akash is not designed to engage or neutralize hypersonic threats.

Given the Philippines' capability shortcomings, it may be up to the US to defend its Typhon batteries against China's hypersonic arsenal. In May 2024, the US deployed Patriot missile launchers in the Philippines , with the Patriot successfully intercepting a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv in May 2023 .

However, Russia's propaganda may have overhyped the Kinzhal's capability , and China, having much more resources than the former, can likely afford more sophisticated hypersonic missiles.

Aside from attempting to intercept China's hypersonics, US submarines in the South China Sea could try to track and hunt their Chinese hypersonic-armed counterparts.

According to a March 2024 report by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Chinese think tank, 11 US SSNs and two nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) appeared in the South China Sea in 2023.

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However, as China may be using the South China Sea as a protected bastion for its SSBNs , it may mount a nuclear response if it thinks its underwater nuclear deterrent is threatened. With nuclear-armed submarines from opposing sides patrolling nearby, the Philippines risks getting caught in a nuclear exchange between the US and China.

However, in a May 2024 National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) report , Herman Kraft argues that the Philippines does not view China's nuclear arsenal as a direct threat but rather as a factor in US-China competition. Kraft says that while China's assertiveness in the South China Sea has put the Philippines on edge, it has not to date involved the threat of nuclear weapons.

While the Philippines acknowledges that US facilities and forces in its territory may become targets for China, Manila is also building relations with other partners such as Japan and Australia. Such an approach, he says, allows the Philippines to develop its defense capabilities without getting involved in US-China nuclear dynamics.

Kraft says that while the Philippines pushes for a normative, diplomatic approach against weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nuclear weapons, it is constrained by its longstanding dependence on the US.

While the US Typhon missile system does make the Philippines a potential target for China in case of a conflict over Taiwan, it is doubtful whether any Philippine president will allow US offensive strikes from the Philippines' territory, except in the unlikely situation when its main islands are attacked.

If any Philippine leader authorizes such strikes, it risks turning the Philippines into a long-term enemy of China, which will always be situated nearby.

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