China Could Fill The Gap 3 Ways As West Exits West Africa Region

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Nigeria joined BRICS as a partner country a few days before the inauguration of Trump. BRICS is a group of emerging economies determined to act as a counterweight to the west and to whittle down the influence of global institutions. It was established in 2006 , initially composed of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

This decision by the largest economy in the Sahel is an expression of its commitment to China – with potential implications for other Sahelian countries.

The vacuum offers Beijing the opportunity to strengthen its investment and position as a top beneficiary of the critical minerals, such as gold, copper, lithium and uranium, in the Sahel region.

In 2024, west African gold production was estimated to be 11.83 million ounces . Ghana, Burkina Faso, the Republic of Guinea and Mali were the major contributors.

Second, China is in a unique position to push for a resolution of the ECOWAS crisis.

Following military coups, the ECOWAS regional economic bloc sanctioned Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. ECOWAS even threatened Niger with a military invasion. The three countries then decided to leave ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States.

As a neutral actor whose non-interference policy accommodates both civil and military regimes, Beijing is in a position to bring ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States into negotiation before the final departure date of 29 July 2025.

If it succeeds, China would look more like a peaceful power , an image that is contested by others.

Building on its soft power projects like the Confucius Institutes and scholarships, China would look like the“savior” of ECOWAS integration.

This is what it did in the case of the Tazara railway project, where China supported Tanzania and Zambia to build a railway line together. It supported the African countries when the US and Europe had failed, were reluctant or were not interested.

Third is Chinese arms sales.

Chinese arms are already in the Sahel. In 2019, Nigeria signed a US$152 million contract with the China North Industries Corporation Limited (Norinco) to provide some of the weapons needed to fight the Boko Haram terror group. Since then, Chinese drones and other equipment have become a feature in Nigeria's counter-terrorism response.

The Chinese arms market could receive a major boost beyond Nigeria with the withdrawal of Western countries from the Sahel. Western countries are likely to be reluctant to sell arms to the countries that have evicted Western military.

Sanctions on Russia have also increased the likelihood of Chinese arms in the Sahel.

For example, a few months after France and the US left the region, some reports suggested that Russian mercenaries in the Sahel region were using Chinese weapons. Norinco – China's top arms manufacturer and seventh largest arms supplier in the world – has opened sales offices in Nigeria and Senegal.