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- The US dollar has rallied again during the trading session on Friday, and as seen continuation early on Monday against the Philippine peso as interest rates in America continue to climb, causing chaos around the currency world.
- The Philippine peso is a very small currency, so it is decidedly vulnerable to these types of moves.
- For what it is worth, this is a pair that continues to see a major ceiling above, but it certainly looks as if the US dollar is going to do everything it can to test that resistance barrier.
Technical analysis
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Ultimately, the 59 PHP level is an area that you need to watch, as we had recently formed a bit of a“double top. Since then, we have fallen to the 57.75 PHP level, which is roughly halfway between the 200 Day EMA and the 50 Day EMA indicators, which is an area that often will bring technical trading to the forefront. Bouncing from there after forming a bit of a“double bottom”, does suggest that we are in the midst of a consolidation range, which does make a certain amount of sense considering just how strong the US dollar had been previously. Ultimately, this typically will end up being a situation where you are trying to build up momentum for the continuation, but right now it's a little early to call that.
One of the big things that come into the picture right now is the fact that the economy of the Philippines has been rather strong, so unlike so many other currencies, it can somewhat hold its own against the US dollar, at least for the time being. Ultimately, I do think that the US dollar probably continues to go higher, and using the so-called“measured move” of the consolidation range you could be looking at a move to the 61.75 PHP level, but if we were to break down below the 200 Day EMA I would be looking for return to the 57 PHP level.
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