International winners, losers after overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are clear

(MENAFN) At first glance, the international winners and losers after the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad seem clear. The United States, Israel, and Turkey have benefited from the loss of Assad’s power, while his key supporters, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, have experienced a significant setback. However, the situation is more complex, and the political chessboard in the Middle East remains in shock after the unexpected disappearance of Assad, a crucial player. The future of Syria as a unified state is now uncertain, raising questions about who will take control and what their policies will be. Israel appears to be a major beneficiary of Assad’s downfall and Syria’s weakened state, a country that was once a formidable military adversary. In December, Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Syrian-Israeli border, capturing Syrian-controlled Mount Hermon. Israeli airstrikes have been widespread, from Tartus and Latakia on the Mediterranean coast to Damascus, targeting the Syrian army’s heavy weaponry.

Israel can even claim a decisive role in Assad's defeat, particularly due to its open war against Hezbollah since September, as well as its attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria, which deprived Assad of two key allies. As a result, Israel now enjoys an unprecedented regional hegemony, capable of conducting airstrikes throughout the region, from Yemen to Iran. This position has been further solidified by the unconditional support of U.S. President Joe Biden, and could see even greater support if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see this as an opportunity to expel Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and annex the West Bank. Yet, Israel’s security situation is more uncertain today than it was 18 months ago. The Hamas raid on Israel on October 7, 2023, significantly disrupted the political status quo in the Middle East, showing that the situation is untenable for Palestinians. While Israel may have weakened the "axis of resistance" led by Iran, the effects of this are uncertain, and it may not be the transformative shift many expect.

For Syria, the international community, including the U.S., Israel, and others, now faces the same dilemma: who or what will replace Assad? There is widespread speculation, but little certainty. Abu Muhammad al-Julani, leader of the former al-Qaeda affiliate Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has positioned himself as a leader who respects Syria's ethnic and religious diversity. However, his rhetoric and past actions suggest otherwise, as he has made inflammatory remarks about Shiites, alarming the Alawite community, which once held power in Syria. The West has cautiously embraced al-Julani and his movement, once considered "terrorists," and there is even support from unexpected sources like the Taliban. However, al-Julani’s radicalization was not solely a result of Assad’s actions, but also the second Palestinian intifada in 2000. His journey took him to Baghdad in 2003, where he fought against the American invasion and later became a member of a group involved in the conflict. He was eventually imprisoned in a U.S.-run internment camp near the Kuwaiti border.

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