Brazil’S Financial Morning Call For December 27, 2024

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) As trading begins this Friday, December 27, Brazilian markets await crucial economic data. Key indicators on inflation, unemployment, and job creation will be released throughout the day.

These reports will provide vital insights into Brazil's economic health as the year ends.
The IGP-M and IPCA-15 inflation measures will offer clues about price pressures. The unemployment rate will reveal labor market conditions.

Later, the CAGED index will show formal job creation trends. Together, these indicators will shape market expectations and policy outlooks for Brazil's economy in the coming months.
Economic Agenda for December 27, 2024
Brazil

• 08:00 AM BRT – IGP-M
  
• 08:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate
  
• 09:00 AM BRT – IPCA-15
  
• 14:30 PM BRT – CAGED Employment Evolution Index
  

All times are in Brasília Time (BRT)


Brazil's Markets on Thursday, December 26, 2024
On Thursday, December 26, the Ibovespa index climbed back above the 121,000 mark, closing at 121,070.23 points-a 0.25 gain. After the brief holiday break, investors took advantage of the final trading days of the year to readjust portfolios.

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Meanwhile, the US dollar ended the session down 0.11 at R6.18, despite a fresh $3 billion spot market intervention by Brazil's Central Bank. This continued wave of interventions-totaling $19 billion in December, plus an additional $11 billion in line auctions-reflects the monetary authority's determination to meet the seasonal dollar demand from companies and funds making year-end remittances abroad.

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US Markets on Tuesday, December 24, 2024
US stocks kicked off the“Santa Claus Rally” on a positive note. Major indices closed higher, lifted by consumer discretionary and tech gains:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9 (390.08 points) to 43,297.03.
  
• The S&P 500 gained 1.1 (65.97 points) to end at 6,040.04.
  
• The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4 (266.24 points) to 20,031.13.
  

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 finished in the green, with Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Technology among the top performers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 15 to 14.27, signaling a calmer market backdrop.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices Slide
Oil prices continued to soften amid a strong dollar and persistent worries over global economic growth. Fears of slowing demand, coupled with monetary tightening trends worldwide, have weighed on the commodity.

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Gold Prices Rise
Gold has seen renewed interest, supported by geopolitical tensions and a subdued holiday trading environment. The precious metal traditionally benefits from safe-haven flows, and investors have been drawn to it as global uncertainties linger.

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Iron Ore Prices Drop 25% in 2024
Iron ore faces a challenging outlook, having dropped by 25% in 2024. Weaker-than-anticipated demand from China-Brazil's largest trading partner-is cited as a key factor, potentially signaling tough conditions ahead for mining companies in 2025.

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Bitcoin's Year-End Rollercoaster
Bitcoin's price retreated from its all-time high as 2024 drew to a close, trading at $95,600 on December 27. This 3% drop came despite a resurgence in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which totaled $475.15 million on December 26. Fidelity's FBTC led with $254.37 million, while ARK 21Shares' ARKB followed with $186.94 million.

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Corporate and Market Highlights
Brazil's Treasury Direct Attracts Record Investment
Amid market uncertainty, investors flocked to government bonds for perceived safety, pushing the Treasury Direct program to new highs.

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Brazil's Risk Premium Surges
Concerns over fiscal policy have driven Brazil's risk premium to its highest level since May 2023, signaling investor caution.

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Caixa Seguridade Plans a Massive Share Sale
The Brazilian insurance giant gears up for a substantial offering, aiming to bolster capital for future expansion.

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123 Milhas Battles R470 Million Debt
The major Brazilian travel platform is restructuring to remain afloat amid mounting liabilities.

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Sparta Doubles Assets to R17 Billion in 2024
Brazilian credit manager Sparta has seen its assets under management surge, highlighting growing investor appetite for alternative credit.

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Outlook
The flurry of Brazilian indicators set for release today-covering everything from inflation to employment-will guide near-term monetary policy discussions and drive the local market's final stretch of 2024.

With the Central Bank continuing its interventions, any inflation surprises or labor market shocks could intensify currency pressures.

On the external side, US equities have shown resilience, but ongoing concerns over global growth and fiscal uncertainty in Brazil have nudged the country's risk premium higher.

Investors will watch how local authorities balance the need for fiscal prudence with market-friendly policies, particularly as 2025 approaches with fresh challenges in global trade and commodity demand.
Key Factors to Watch Today
1. Inflation and Labor Data IGP-M, Unemployment Rate, IPCA-15, CAGED
Whether prices continue to rise and how strongly the labor market holds will influence rate expectations and corporate earnings projections.

2. Central Bank Interventions
After sizable dollar auctions in December, the Central Bank's strategy to stabilize the real remains in focus.

3. Fiscal and Political Developments
With Brazil's risk premium surging, any communication regarding fiscal reforms or government spending is pivotal to restoring investor confidence.

4. Global Commodity Trends
The continued slide in oil and iron ore underscores global growth concerns. Any fresh signals from major importers, especially China, will be crucial for Brazilian exporters.

5. Corporate Moves
Record Treasury Direct inflows, large share sales by Caixa Seguridade, and high-profile debt restructurings eg 123 Milhas highlight evolving risk appetites and capital flows.

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