Hollow HALO: US Admits Defeat In Hypersonic Missile Program

Asia Times has previously noted that the Harpoon anti-ship missile's short range of 128 kilometers for standard models, lack of speed or stealth to penetrate modern shipboard defenses and paucity of launch platforms other than carrier-based aircraft forces US Navy air carriers dangerously close to battle zones, putting these valuable assets at risk. This situation narrows the US Navy's tactical options for striking modern warships at long distances.

However, Asia Times has pointed out that stealthy anti-ship missiles such as LRASM offer distinct advantages over hypersonic weapons by combining low radar cross-sections and minimal infrared signatures with advanced semi-autonomous guidance systems.

These features ensure survivability and precision in heavily contested electromagnetic warfare (EW) environments, where reliance on external intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms might be compromised.

The LRASM's stealth attributes make it harder to detect and intercept. In contrast, hypersonic weapons can create detectable plasma wakes and light emissions.

The capability to share data and execute coordinated swarm attacks further enhances LRASM's effectiveness. Its stealth and autonomous targeting capabilities offer effective tactical solutions, offsetting some lost advantages from HALO's cancellation.

Yet, at the operational level, HALO's cancellation risks creating a capability gap to defeat anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies. A January 2023 report by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) mentions that hypersonic weapons, launched beyond the reach of A2/AD systems with their atmospheric flight profile, enable them to evade midcourse missile defenses designed to intercept targets in space.

According to the report, by flying lower and maneuvering unpredictably, hypersonic missiles complicate detection and interception by ship-based and short-range defenses, potentially neutralizing coastal air defenses, over-the-horizon (OTH) radars and strike systems early in a conflict.

However, despite those advantages, a weak US hypersonic weapons industrial base may preclude the widespread adoption of such weapons.

A report released this month by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) mentions that the US Department of Defense (DOD) has not yet established programs of record, indicating a lack of approved mission requirements or long-term acquisition plans for hypersonic weapons. It also points out that the US testing infrastructure remains limited, with no current US facility able to simulate full-scale, time-dependent flight environments above Mach 8.

Additionally, it says flight test schedules are continually hampered by limited hypersonic flight corridors, insufficient test ranges and limited support assets, hindering efforts to transition hypersonic prototypes into deployable weapons systems.

In contrast, the LRASM may have a more mature production base. In an April 2023 article for Air & Space Forces Magazine, Chris Gordon mentions that Lockheed Martin is producing more than 500 LRASMs and JASSMs a year, with the defense contractor working to increase capacity to 1,000 missiles annually.

In the same article, Dom DeScisciolo mentions that the LRASM and JASSM share many components and are built on the same production lines. DeScisciolo notes the missiles are designated as either type depending on customer demand.

Strategically, canceling HALO undermines the US Navy's efforts to maintain technological parity or superiority with competitors like China and Russia, which are aggressively advancing hypersonic missile programs.

Russia has already used hypersonic weapons in combat against Ukraine , though their effectiveness and overall impact on the ongoing war of attrition between the two are debatable.

Similarly, China fielded the DF-17 HGV missile system in 2019 and tested an HGV that reportedly circled the globe before cruising to its target in August 2021 . In contrast, despite intensive testing, the US has yet to field any hypersonic weapon.

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In a March 2024 statement for the US House Armed Services Committee, Jeffrey McCormick mentions that China now has the world's leading hypersonic arsenal, underscoring China's advances in hypersonic weapon technology.

McCormick says two decades of intense and focused investment, development, testing and deployment have dramatically advanced China's development of conventional and nuclear-armed hypersonic missile technologies.

However, some argue hypersonic weapons are overhyped and no better than existing weapons. In a March 2024 article for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, David Wright and Cameron Tracy argue that existing weapons, such as ballistic missiles, already fly at hypersonic speed and that drag from low-altitude atmospheric flight could slow hypersonic weapons down more than ballistic missiles on a depressed trajectory.

Wright and Tracy mention that hypersonic weapons emit substantial heat signatures during launch and flight, which could be detected early by satellites and other ground-based sensors, enabling potential interception.

They also say hypersonic weapons have limited maneuverability, as immense force is required to change direction at such speeds and scramjet engine technology for that purpose is still immature.

In terms of accuracy, they point out that the same guidance systems in hypersonic weapons can be used in maneuvering missile warheads (MARVs) and that the latter fly high enough to avoid the in-flight heating problems associated with the former.

In line with those views, Wright and Tracy say that while the US can not yet build functional hypersonic weapons, it stands to question whether those weapons make military and fiscal sense, regardless of whether its near-peer adversaries build them.

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