EUR/USD Analysis Today 02/12: Faces Downward Pressure

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

• At the beginning of this week, the US dollar regained its recent losses following Trump's recent harsh threats and ahead of the start of trading for those who abandon the US dollar.
• As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair is stabilizing on a downward trend around the support level of 1.0515 after closing last week's trading at around 1.0575.
• We expect the downward momentum for the euro-dollar to persist until the reaction to the announcement of US jobs figures at the end of the week, which will have a strong reaction on the expectations for the future of US federal Reserve policies.

US Treasury Yields Stronger

Today, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to more than 4.2%, reflecting a two-week decline, and its gains came with increasing speculation among investors about the strong US economic performance before the new year 2025. Also, the rise in bond yields followed the rally in the US dollar after a sharp threat from Trump to the BRICS group of countries. Correspondingly, he stated that he would impose a 100% tariff if the BRICS countries created or supported a new currency that could replace the dollar central bank policies support the dollar

In terms of monetary policy, financial markets are currently betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting US interest rates by 25 basis points this month by 67%, up from 53% a week ago. In general, investors are now focusing on US jobs data and statements from a number of US Federal Reserve policy officials Stocks Stabilize

According to stock trading platforms, US stock futures have seen little change today as investors seek new catalysts in the last month of 2024. Overall, US stock market indices have emerged from a strong week and month, with the three major indices rising between 1.1% and 1.45% last week and rising between 5.7% and 7.8% in November trading. Also, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices hit all-time highs on Friday. Simultaneously, these gains were largely driven by the rally that followed the election after the decisive victory of President-elect Donald Trump. Ultimately, the resilience of the US economy and the corporate sector also boosted investor sentiment.

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My technical outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair remains unchanged. The overall trend is still downward, and as we mentioned before and confirm now, the stability of the euro-dollar around and below the support level of 1.0500 will continue to encourage the dominance of the bears on the trend. Furthermore, the expectations will return to the proximity of the euro-dollar parity if the bears succeed in pushing the currency pair towards the support levels of 1.0455 and 1.0380 again. Technically, these levels and below will push the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels. Conversely, and based on the daily chart, the psychological resistance of 1.1000 will remain the most important for a shift in the euro-dollar direction to bullish.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewEUR/USD Trading Signals:

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