The Impact Of Ukraine Firing US Missiles Into Russia

This has been fuelled in part by Russian nuclear saber-rattling . Russian President Vladimir Putin upped the ante in September, warning that allowing Western weapons to hit Russia would constitute NATO's“direct participation” in the war.

Russia claims , apparently without foundation, that such weapons need Western crews to man them. Russia also claims the missiles may require Western intelligence to ensure accurate targeting.

The Kremlin has reacted predictably to the US announcement this week, saying it would add“fuel to the fire” of the war. However, ATACMS have already been used against Russian targets inside Ukrainian sovereign territory, notably in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed a decade ago.

Some Biden administration sources have told the media that fears of retaliation via sabotage also have shaped its wariness about allowing ATACMS to hit Russia. Russian intelligence services have mounted a substantial sabotage campaign in Europe during the past year.

Aversion to such risk has been evident from the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western countries have shown concern at every step about crossing Putin's supposed“red lines.”

They initially balked at supplying different types of equipment – be it tanks, fighter jets, short-range missiles or long-range missiles. They then put restrictions on where and how they could be used.

The US restrictions on using ATACMS led Britain and France to place similar limits on Ukraine's use of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, which have a range of 250 kilometers. It seems likely the US move will now enable the UK and France to follow suit in relaxing those limits.

Another boost to Ukraine's arsenal could come from Germany, where the Greens, Social Democrats and the opposition Christian Democrats support green-lighting delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, which have a range of 500 kilometers.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has to date blocked it , but elections are now scheduled for February.

Washington officials have recently claimed that ATACMS would now be of limited use because Russia has moved much of its key weaponry, particularly jet fighters, outside their range.

However, some military analysts believe there are still plenty of military targets within range, perhaps numbering in the hundreds.

These include command and communications posts, logistics hubs, arms depots, missile units and helicopter detachments. Moving equipment further back from the front lines would make life difficult for Russian operations, stretching their supply lines and adding to the time for air support to arrive.

Allowing a sovereign state that's been illegally invaded to use weapons against military targets inside the aggressor country is hardly escalatory.

Moreover, as US-based Russian scholar Sergei Radchenko points out, it would be extremely risky for Russia, which has so woefully underperformed on the battlefield in Ukraine, to attack NATO in response.

Russian warnings about escalation seem even more preposterous given the huge amount of weaponry and ammunition Russia has received from its own supporters, even before the entry of North Korean soldiers.

North Korea has sold Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles and millions of rounds of ammunition. And it is now reportedly supplying Russia with self-propelled howitzers and multiple rocket launchers .

Iran has supplied Russia with thousands of Shahed drones, drone production technology, ammunition and short-range missiles.

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And China sells Russia around US$300 million each month in dual-use equipment necessary for weapons production, from machine tools to microchips. Russia may even have set up a military drone factory in China.

What could Trump's arrival mean?

The Biden White House may further reduce restrictions on using ATACMS inside Russia, for example, allow their use beyond the Kursk region, in an effort to leave Ukraine in as strong a position as possible before Trump takes office.

Some Ukrainians fear Trump may cut support for Ukraine in his effort to end the war quickly. However, others believe Trump may be just as helpful as the Biden administration, given the latter's caution and the need for Trump to be seen as a credible dealmaker , rather than selling Ukraine down the river.

Some in Trump's new team, notably incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, have spoken, albeit equivocally, of using the prospect of more robust support for Ukraine as leverage in pushing Putin to negotiate.

But optimism on this score must be offset by the strong presence in his new Cabinet and inner circle of those who have been strong critics of aid to Ukraine or even downright apologists for Russia.

There is also a strong chance the Trump administration could rescind the decision to lift the restrictions on ATACMS use.

Jon Richardson is visiting fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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