Will Trump Renew 'Maximum Pressure' Against Iran?

In response to these mounting pressures, Iran scaled back its adherence to the JCPOA. It barred International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program and enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade level .

Over the past four years, there have been substantial shifts in Iran's relationships with Arab states in the region.

Most significantly, Iran and its chief rival, Saudi Arabia, resumed diplomatic relations in March 2023, marking a historic end to a long period of hostility.

Relations between the two nations quickly progressed to a level of cooperation unthinkable just years ago. And as Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon have continued, Saudi Arabia has drifted away from Israel and closer to its biggest foe, Iran.

Although some skepticism remains , the foreign ministers of both countries met last month in Riyadh, followed by a meeting this week between the general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia's armed forces and his counterpart in Tehran.

And at a summit of regional leaders in Riyadh this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Israel to respect Iranian sovereignty and accused Israel of“collective genocide” in Gaza. The summit resolution also warned of the danger of Israel's“expansion of aggression” against Iran and other regional countries.

The latest confrontations between Iran and Israel have underscored both nations' destructive capabilities. A war between them would likely trigger a catastrophic broader conflict that could draw in the United States, Russia and other players. Such a scenario would have profound economic and security repercussions worldwide.

In his campaign for a second term, Trump has consistently spoken out against prolonged US involvement in wars. He also signaled a more conciliatory approach to Iran . Rejecting the idea of US-driven regime change in Tehran, he remarked:

He further expressed a hope for improved relations:“I'm not looking to be bad to Iran, we're going to be friendly, I hope.”

Elon Musk, the tech billionaire closely allied with Trump, also met with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations earlier this week in a bid to defuse tensions in the next administration, The New York Times reported .

However, other reports indicate that Trump's top advisers are planning to reinstate the“maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. It would include increasing sanctions again and choking off Iran's oil income by“going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil”.

Trump's unpredictable policymaking style suggests it is too early to know what approach he might take.

Iran is now led by a reformist government (by Iranian standards), whose tenure would overlap with much of Trump's second term.

President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration has voiced its desire to improve relations with the West and resume nuclear talks. And contrary to previous reformist governments in Iran, it generally enjoys the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the ultimate power in the country.

Despite its military strength, Iran faces deep economic challenges, with public dissatisfaction growing. Therefore, Iran may seek to prioritize diplomatic solutions with the new Trump administration, knowing any escalation could destabilize the region.

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In a sign of openness towards Trump, Iran's vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has urged him to reassess the policy of“maximum pressure”, saying:“Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past.”

In the same vein, Araghchi, the foreign minister, has sent positive signals to Trump, saying:

He also emphasized that Iran is“NOT after nuclear weapons.”

Iran has yet to respond to Israel's latest direct attack in late October. Though Iran has launched two direct attacks of its own on Israel this year, it may seek to de‐escalate tensions. In a statement in late October, Iran's military said a ceasefire in the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts is more important than retaliation against Israel.

If a ceasefire were to occur, the region could enter a period of relative calm after a year of heightened tensions. This would present a valuable opportunity for the US to work with Israel, Arab states and potentially Iran towards a more permanent regional peace framework.

Ali Mamouri is research fellow of Middle East studies, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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