Another Trump Administration May Not Be A Disaster For Ukraine

Moreover, there is nothing to suggest that the incoming administration will deviate from those of Obama, Biden and indeed Trump's first term in seeing China as the primary threat to the US. Beijing has thrown its support behind Russian President Vladimir Putin during his military efforts in Ukraine.

Continued US cooperation with allies in Europe would also strengthen Washington in Asia. Direct military cooperation, such as coordinating with the British to produce submarines for Australia, helps the US strategy to counter and contain China's threat in the Pacific. Continuing that cooperation also would signal to US allies in Asia – such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – that Washington is a dependable security partner in times of crisis.

Much has been made of Trump's perceived cozy relationship with Putin . In the run-up to the election, Trump insisted that, should he win, he would bring peace to Ukraine even before he was inaugurated and called Putin“savvy,” a“genius,” for the Ukrainian invasion. On his part, Putin congratulated Trump on his victory , praising him for being“courageous” when a gunman tried to assassinate him. Moscow has also indicated that it is ready for dialogue with the Republican president-elect.

Trump's actual policy toward Russia during his first term was notably more hawkish than these words may suggest. Indeed, there is a good argument that the Trump administration was more hawkish on Putin than the Obama one it replaced.

For example, Trump provided the Ukrainians with anti-tank missiles after the Obama administration had refused to give them such weapons. Also, in 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty , citing the previous violations of the treaty by Russia. (In contrast, in 2014, then President Barack Obama had accused Russia of breaching the INF treaty after it allegedly tested a ground-launched cruise missile but had chosen not to withdraw from the treaty.)

Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, referred to the Trump administration's treaty withdrawal move as“a very dangerous step .” The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty had constrained the US from developing new weapons and tied Washington's hands in its strategic rivalry with China in the Pacific.

Then, in 2019, Trump signed the Protecting Europe's Energy Security Act , which included sanctions halting the construction of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline directly connecting Russia to Germany, via the Baltic Sea. The pipeline, which has since been rendered inoperable by a sabotage attack in 2022, would have bypassed Ukraine, prompting the Ukrainian government to label it an“economic and energy blockade .” Signing the act was one of 52 policy actions undertaken by the first Trump administration to restrict Russia.

In contrast, the Biden administration waived Nord Stream 2 pipeline sanctions in 2021, only to reimpose them on Feb. 23, 2022 – one day before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Almost three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin's war machine still runs on energy revenues . Despite unprecedented Western sanctions aimed at restricting sales of Russian oil, countries continue to purchase from Russia. For example, India has become the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil .

And here a Trump policy not aimed directly at Russia may, in fact, harm Russian interests.

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Trump has made repeated promises to introduce a new wave of drilling for oil and gas on American soil. And while it might take time for this to filter through to lower prices globally, increased production from the US – already the world's top crude oil producer – has the capacity to make an impact.

Trump's return to the White House could mean tougher enforcement of US oil sanctions against Iran, reducing Tehran's capacity to sell weapons to Russia. Iran has supported Russia both diplomatically and militarily since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And since 2020, Iran's revenue from oil exports nearly quadrupled, from US$16 billion to $53 billion in 2023 , according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Predicting what Trump, a notably unpredictable leader, will do in power is difficult. And US foreign policy can be a slow-moving beast, so one should not expect immediate breakthroughs or major surprises. But his record as a counter to the views of observers who have suggested that his victory does not bode well for Ukraine.

Tatsiana Kulakevich is an associate professor of instruction in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies and an affiliate professor in the Institute for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies at the University of South Florida .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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