(
MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bearish View
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6510.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6665.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6590 and a take-profit at 0.6665.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6510.
The AUD/USD exchange rate retreated sharply as the market reacted to the Federal Reserve decision and the Donald Trump election. It retreated to a low of 0.6580, down from last week's high of 0.6688 as traders focused on the upcoming US inflation and Australian jobs numbers.
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The AUD/USD pair erased some of the gains made last week as traders focused on the US election in which Donald Trump won by a large margin. Republicans now control the Senate and are on a path to control the House of Representatives.
Trump has made several pledges, some of which could have an impact on the US dollar. For example, he has threatened to implement large tariffs, which will lead to higher inflation, making the Federal Reserve's work more difficult.
He has also made plans for mass deportations, which will likely lead to labor shortages in key sectors of the economy. Still, it is unclear whether he will be able to do these measures because of the legal implications.
The AUD/USD retreated as investors moved to the US dollar, which is often seen as a safe haven in times of risk.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% to cushion the labor market, which has shown signs of deterioration. Officials hinted that they would maintain their data-dependence as analysts expect the bank to cut rates again by 0.25%.
The AUD/USD pair will next react to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will come out on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the CPI retreated from 2.4% in September to 2.3% in October.
Australia will also release its jobs numbers on Thursday, a few weeks after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate peaked at 0.6940 in September, and has now dropped to 0.6582. It has moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
The pair has also dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), meaning that bears are in control for now.
It has also formed a bearish engulfing pattern. Therefore, there is a risk that it will continue falling as traders target the next key support at 0.6510, its lowest point last week.
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