US Election Too Close To Call. Don't Blame The Polls, Though
Date
11/5/2024 7:05:46 AM
(MENAFN- Asia Times)
With just hours remaining until election day in the United States, pundits and the public alike are scouring public opinion polls for early signs of a result.
We've had months of campaigning and hundreds of polls. Yet, there are still few conclusive takeaways other than the dissatisfying catchphrase of election analysts the world over this year:“it's too close to call.”
So, why is this happening? And what are we to make of the polls?
Polling isn't predictive
Both campaigns have at different times touted favorable – and conflicting – polling numbers. The trouble is no one seems to know which polls to believe.
On Sunday, a new Des Moines Register poll headed by respected pollster Ann Selzer showed Kamala Harris with a surprise three-point lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, providing an unexpected boost to Harris' anxious campaign.
Within hours, a“confidential” Trump campaign memo dismissed Selzer's numbers. Trump himself tweeted favourable polling from AtlasIntel that shows him leading in all seven swing states.
In recent cycles, despite misses in some key states – particularly in Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020 – averages of polling have tended to be relatively accurate estimations of public opinion.
However, there is little that can be gleaned from current swing state margins that are all within the margin of error, other than what we already know: Americans are deeply divided over their choices.
Part of the reason why is that polls are not predictive. They are a measure of popular sentiment at the time of the poll, from which educated guesses can be made about who may win a future election.
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