Black Arrow: US Missile Aims For More Pointed Strikes On China

According to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), most land-based HQ-9 variants can hit targets 200 kilometers away, with a claimed 90% single-shot kill capability against aircraft.

David Axe noted in an October 2021 article for The National Interest that China's Russian-made S-400 SAM systems deployed opposite Taiwan can hit targets up to 240 kilometers away, threatening to shoot down Taiwan's combat aircraft as soon as they take off.

Given the threat of sophisticated Chinese air defenses, The War Zone mentioned in August 2024 that the AC-130 fleet may need to transition away from its traditional direct-fire role
and incorporate long-range standoff weaponry as a“bomb truck,” such as cruise missiles and drone swarms, to remain relevant.

The report says this evolution has already begun with the AC-130J Ghostrider, which features upgraded systems and new weapons, including Hellfire missiles, Small-Diameter Bombs and
the Rapid Dragon palletized munition.

In August 2023, the Asia Times noted that Rapid Dragon allows the US to carry out long-distance attacks without requiring fighter jets or bombers, which may be in short supply .

Rapid Dragon is a palletized munition that can hold six Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) for C-130s or nine JASSMs for the C-17. It is designed to be quickly deployed without requiring modifications to the launch aircraft, as targeting data is programmed into the missiles using a laptop.

It offers a solution to the issues associated with platform compatibility, availability and capacity often faced with air-launched cruise missiles such as the JASSM, which was initially designed for use on fighter jets or bombers.

It can also substantially increase accuracy by firing various missiles from one launcher. A reconnaissance missile equipped with a high-resolution camera can detect the enemy, followed by an electronic warfare missile to eliminate enemy radar and other sensors
and, finally, a high-explosive missile for lethal effect.

Rapid Dragon operators select a target, request a strike and confirm or update routing coordinates for deployment. This allows air forces to saturate an area with multiple weapons, complicate adversary targeting and deplete air defense munitions. The system is also helpful for US allies when aircraft availability is limited, enabling new concepts of operations.

As for the AC-130 launching swarming drones, Asia Times noted in May 2024 that drone swarms can perform surveillance, test or jam enemy air defenses, patrol areas of interest, launch swarm attacks and destroy enemy drones.

Also, multiple drones in a swarm equipped with different sensors act as various nodes in a
mesh network that can effectively track and target enemies with multiple surveillance methods.

However, The War Zone states that budget pressures and shifting military priorities may force further changes to the AC-130's design and mission. It says the AC-130's ability to contribute to future conflicts will depend on its adaptation to new mission profiles, such as long-range precision strikes and support for agile combat operations in the Indo-Pacific theater​.

Apart from being used as a bomb truck, the US is exploring using the AC-130 in various other roles, further reflecting the shift from long-running counterinsurgency operations in permissive airspace to near-peer great power conflict.

In an August 2023 Air University article , Riley Feeney mentions that as the US military shifts focus to potential conflicts with peer competitors like China, the AC-130J is being adapted for roles such as special operations forces (SOF) support, command and control, global firepower projection and many other roles.

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Regarding the AC-130J providing SOF support, Feeney notes that with a shift away from direct-action raids, SOF units are being trained to operate with less support, including less air support.

As a result, he says the AC-130J is being considered for special reconnaissance, which involves clandestinely relaying critical information from forward SOF teams to command and control.

Feeney says the AC-130J is equipped with advanced communication systems and skilled aviators for command and control, making it a valuable asset during air warfare.

He notes it has the potential to lead joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) operations even in areas where other aircraft like the E-3 or E-8 may not be able to operate effectively, improving command and control capabilities while delivering firepower.

According to Feeney, the Rapid Dragon concept turns any cargo aircraft into a weapons platform, enabling global firepower projection without modifying aircraft.

He says it also allows the deployment of firepower globally using traditional shooters in non-shooting roles, like the AC-130J in command and control. He notes that the US Air Force is enhancing the AC-130J with improved defensive systems and precision-guided weapons to boost its combat capabilities.

However, Feeney points out that the AC-130J upgrades focus on increasing lethality but may not fully align with the needs of the Joint Force in the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) theater. He says technological investment and creative employment are essential to enhance the aircraft's relevance.

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