USD/HKD Forecast Today - 30/09: USD Plunges Vs HKD (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

• The USD/HKD pair is experiencing significant downward pressure.
• All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of downward pressure as traders continue to try to price in the idea of the federal Reserve cutting rates.
• After all, we have recently seen the Federal Reserve cut 50 basis points off of its interest rate, and therefore it makes the US dollar a lot less attractive.
• In this environment, it looks very likely that we are going to continue to see the Hong Kong dollar strengthen over the longer term.

That being said, the market continues to see quite a bit of downward pressure and momentum that is reminiscent of any market that is not freely floating. Keep in mind that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has its fingers in this currency pair anytime we move, so I do think it is likely to be an easy move one way or the other. That being said, there is a certain amount of psychology attached to the 7.77 level underneath that could come into play.

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When I look at the Relative Strength Index, it is a little oversold at this point, so I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see a bounce, which we did in fact see at the end of the session on Friday. Whether or not that holds remains to be seen but I think that rallies probably get sold into, especially somewhere near the 7.75 zero level, an area that has been important in the past. All things being equal, the 50 Day EMA. The 7950 level also looms large as a major resistance barrier, so I think it all ties together for a“fade the rally” type of situation, unless of course something changes drastically. Looking for signs of exhaustion after a short-term bounce might be the way forward.

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