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- The pound could continue to advance against the dollar in the coming weeks, but the next few days could see some consolidation around current levels.
- According to licensed trading platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose by 1.50% last week, peaking at 1.3339, but has returned to 1.3318 at the time of writing.
- Concurrently, the weekly RSI is touching overbought conditions at 70, and we note that the RSI rarely holds here.
Therefore, we expect a pullback below 1.33 at some point this week as the market is likely to rebalance after recent strong gains. Certainly, the medium-term uptrend remains firmly intact, but some neutrality is needed. According to analysts from UOB Bank, "The next resistance at 1.3350 is unlikely to be threatened." Added, "Upside momentum has not increased much, and the pound is unlikely to rise further. Today, the pound is likely to trade in a range, perhaps between 1.3270 and 1.3340."
Furthermore, the first risky event for the pound will come at the beginning of trading this week in the form of the September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey, which will tell us about the performance of economic growth. We see some risks in a reading below consensus, in line with other surveys showing increased tension between businesses and consumers ahead of next month's budget announcement from the new government. Moreover, a weak data release could give traders a reason to take profits on an impressive rally. Also note that the pound's positioning is very high, with the trading community holding large "long" positions. Generally, we cannot predict the future based on positioning alone, but it should serve as a reminder that when disappointment eventually comes, the market reaction may be noticeable.
Currently, the broader backdrop is supporting the pound and GBP/USD could gain as long as global equity markets are on the rise. For this reason, we believe that global factors will remain more important to the pound than domestic issues.
Recently, the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut last week boosted investor sentiment and helped global markets appreciate. The possibility of further rate cuts may provide additional gains. According to analysts, "While we do not expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the federal funds rate as much as the market expects, the US dollar is likely to weaken while volatility is low, and risk appetite is high. Also, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Williams will speak next Thursday. We do not expect either to resist the market's positive reaction to the 50-basis point rate cut."
Technically, the GBP/USD pair can maintain its upward trend this week if financial market volatility remains low and equity markets in developed economies remain in the green. Moving to the existing risks in the United States, the most prominent release this week will be the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) numbers on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of US inflation. Also, financial markets expect inflation to rise by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7% year-on-year in August. Rising inflation conflicts with expectations of generous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and if the market wakes up somewhat, the US dollar may recover.
Meanwhile, monitor different policymakers at the Federal Reserve who are scheduled to give speeches this week. Consequently, any cautionary voices about the pace of future cuts could give the market a reason to rebalance to a lower level of euphoria that prevailed last week.
Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
The bulls still control the direction of the GBP/USD pair, but considering that its gains have pushed some technical indicators towards overbought levels, the pair may face profit-taking unless it gains more positive momentum. Technically, the current uptrend will not be broken without moving towards support levels of 1.3170 and 1.3000. The nearest resistance levels to the current trend are 1.3365, 1.3420, and 1.3500, respectively. Ultimately, we still prefer selling the GBP/USD from any upward movement.
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