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MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- During last week's trading, the USD/JPY currency pair attempted to rally but its gains did not exceed the resistance level of 149.38 before closing the week around the 147.60 level.
- This was due to investor disappointment in the results of some US economic data and in anticipation of important statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week.
- According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar has risen significantly during the trading week, colliding with the previous downward trendline, showing signs of resistance.
The psychological resistance level of 150 yen seems to be a major resistance, especially since the 50-week moving average is located in the same area. If the currency pair can break above this level, then the US dollar may continue to rise.
With pressure on the US dollar returning, Goldman Sachs Group Inc economists have cut the probability of a US recession next year to 20% from 25%, citing retail sales and jobless claims data last week. In this regard, Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Saturday,“if the US August jobs report due on September 6“looks reasonably good, we may lower the probability of a recession to 15%, where it has been for about a year” before the revision on August 2.
Meanwhile, a series of data showing the resilience of the US economy has pushed stock indexes to their best week this year, with buyers entering after the recent rout. According to the results of the economic calendar, retail sales in July rose by the most since early 2023. Also, separate government figures showed the lowest number of unemployment claims last week since early July.
Also, Goldman Sachs economists said they are“more confident” that the Fed will cut US interest rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting. Added,“although another negative surprise in jobs on September 6 could trigger a 50-basis point move.”
In Japan, preliminary GDP for the second quarter grew by 0.8%, beating the expected 0.5% growth rate. The preliminary annualized GDP for the quarter also beat expectations at 2.1% with a change of 3.1%, and the preliminary GDP deflator (year-on-year) beat expectations at 2.6% with a change of 3%.
Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today
USD/JPY continues to trade slightly above its 100-hour moving average. Friday's decline pushed the currency pair closer to oversold levels on the 14-hour Relative Strength Index. In the short term, based on the hourly chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in a descending channel formation. The 14-hour RSI has also declined to approach oversold conditions. Technically, bears will target extended declines around 147.50 or lower to the 147.10 support. Moreover, bulls will look to pounce on potential rebounds around 148.78 or higher at the 149.35 resistance.
In the long term, based on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in a sharply rising channel formation. Also, the 14-day RSI has rebounded to recover from oversold levels. Furthermore, bulls will look to extend the current rebounds towards 149.96 or higher to the 151.62 resistance. On the other hand, bears will look to pounce on profits around 146.41 or lower at the 144.00 support.
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