US Well-Placed To Guide Myanmar's New Governance

The report notes a distinct aspect of the structure of the local governments. A majority of the local governments have three main bodies: an administrative body, a judicial body and defense body. In many cases, the judicial body is a department that reports to administrative and military bodies.

Similar local governments are being set up in other parts of Myanmar after the EROs and PDFs have driven out the military junta's troops and the SAC's local administrators. The Arakan Army (AA) and the Karenni Army (KA) are expanding their emerging governance systems as they take control of more and more of the states of Rakhine and Karenni, respectively.

The Kachin Independence Army and the Karen National Liberation Army are also extending their long-standing governments into new areas of the states of Kachin and Kayin (Karen), as well as portions of the neighboring divisions of Bago and Sagaing.

In the state of Shan, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are setting up local governments in areas the Kokang and Ta'ang consider their homelands.

The governance challenge is not only taking place at the local level. The AA has stated that its goal is to create an autonomous state-level government for Rakhine State. The KA and its political arm, the Karenni National Progressive Party, have established an interim executive council to govern the state of Karenni.

In the state of Chin, two different groups have announced the establishment of transitional governments for what they call“Chinland.” On December 6, 2023, the CDF, CNF and representatives of most of the Chin tribes released a
transitional Chinland Constitution
and formed the Chinland Council. Another group, led by the Chin Brotherhood Alliance, formed the
Chin People's Administrative Committee
on January 27, 2024.

Sources in the Chin community have told the author that the backers of both interim governments are attempting to resolve their differences over the formation of a state government for Chinland.

The emergence of interim autonomous state governments in Myanmar has implications for the possible future formation of a federal republic. Most of the EROs and the PDFs do not accept the legitimacy of the Federal Democracy Charter and the National Unity Government (NUG), announced by the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw on March 31, 2021.

If the autonomous interim state governments expand and consolidate power in their respective territories, they will have to be included in negotiations over the terms for possibly forming a new federal republic in Myanmar.

This new reality was recognized in a
joint statement
issued by the CNF, the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the Karen National Union (KNU), and the NUG on January 31, 2024. The statement implicitly sets aside the Federal Democracy Charter, stating that“all relevant parties” will draft and promulgate“a new constitution that embodies federalism and democratic values.”

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It also includes in its action plan the establishment of a“Transitional National Unity Government,” which may be different from the current NUG. Most of the major EROs and PDFs did not sign the joint statement.

Of particular note is the absence of the AA, Kachin Independence Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and TNLA. Also missing are the Shan State Army-North, Shan State Army-South, and the United Wa State Army; all three EROs control significant portions of the state of Shan. It is unclear where the Mon National Liberation Army and its political arm, the New Mon State Party, stand regarding the possible formation of a new federal republic of Myanmar.

The Biden administration's compliance with SAC restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian assistance has undermined the image of the US government within Myanmar's resistance movement.

If Congress and the Biden administration were to openly provide technical assistance and advice in the formation of local and state governments in Myanmar, it would enhance the reputation of the US government and possibly create a solid foundation for a future democratic nation.

Michael Martin is an adjunct fellow (non-resident) of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. This article was previously published by the Center for Security and International Studies and Pacific Forum and is republished with the author's kind permission.

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