(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Orkhan Amashov read more The crisis of power within the separatist clique in Karabakh
seems to have been abated, albeit remaining distant from being
resolved, with the overall state of affairs within the walls of the
illegal 'NKR' structure remaining critically fragile under the
cracking influence of the environmental vigil on the
Lachin-Khankandi Road.
If, on 15 January, some reports in the Armenian media were
definitively pointing to the imminent 'removal' of the self-styled
'first minister' Ruben Vardanyan, within the succeeding days, the
tycoon clung to his perch, defiantly tweeting that he would not
resign, with reports citing a last-ditch Russian intervention
affecting the temporary reversal of his fortunes.
The reference point that led to the internal squabbles amongst
the separatist forces, also causing rifts between them and Yerevan,
seems to be the eco-protest organised by Azerbaijani
environmentalists, triggered by the ongoing illegal exploitation of
Karabakh's natural resources under the willfully blind eyes of the
Russian 'peacekeepers'.
Although the peaceful demonstration has not caused any
humanitarian disaster for the Armenian residents of the region, it
nevertheless attracted attention to the sheer untenability of the
present state of affairs within the framework of which the illegal
presence of Vardanyan and fellow separatists under the Russian
contingent would be maintained.
The eco-protest has delivered a pneumatic drill size blow to the
Vardanyan project, wreaking havoc for the plan to illegally extract
the region's mineral deposits, ensuring that awareness of the
impossibility and implausibility of the creation of economic
self-sufficiency for the separatists at the expense of Azerbaijani
wealth, one of the attractions forming the crux of the cloud-cuckoo
land viability of the Kremlin-sent tycoon's plans.
Baku's unmoving determination not to talk to Vardanyan has
increased the sensibility amongst some Armenians of Karabakh that
the so-called“first minister” was an irksome spoiler acting to the
detriment of the region's population, with unrealistic blue sky
secessionist ambitions that would result in further exacerbation of
the situation.
Voicing this fear, some Pashinyan allies openly called for the
tycoon's removal, observantly calling him a scoundrel of the
highest order, with the slightly grounded Armenian Prime Minister
suggesting the best possible mode of action for the separatist
regime was to engage in dialogue with Baku and refrain from making
provocative statements. The unrecognised and illegal“NKR” issued a
statement, commenting that such a call was against their
aspirations.
The rift between the illegal entity in Khankandi and Yerevan is
believed to have a deeper and more substantial root, which is
attributable to Pashinyan's fear that Vardanyan's true ambition is
to capitalise on the separatist escapade to pave his path towards
future ascendance to power in Armenia, with some analysts
considering the design as being integral to the Kremlin's miserable
strategy.
What has become the critical point within the crisis were calls
for a“fresh election” for the separatists to form a new
leadership. Vardanyan claimed this would serve the interests of
Baku, with some commentators stressing that, in the case of such a
scenario, the likely probability would be a complete vacuum of
power, as Azerbaijan would never let such an illegal process on its
territory reach its completion.
What seems to be the most credible reason affecting Vardanyan's
present survival by skin of his teeth is that Russia may well have
communicated to the regime in Khankandi that if a“new election”
were to be held, no guarantees could be given as to its safe
conduct. On the whole, for the Kremlin, its protégé may be
expendable, but before shelving this project centred around his
persona, it will need to insinuate a new scheme for which it might,
at present, have been insufficiently resourceful.
In the meantime, Baku seems to be carefully observing the
developments and consider possible formats of engagement with the
local Armenian community, thereby giving impetus to dialogue as a
part of a wider policy of its integration into the rest of the
country. Such communication, if conducted efficiently with
plausible consequences, will inevitably lead to the creation of an
alternative power centre within currently Armenian-populated
Karabakh, eviscerating the separatists, and culminating in direct
Azerbaijani administrative control over the region.
The situation enveloping the Lachin-Khankandi Road has created
narrowed scope for manoeuvrability for Yerevan, which is now
compelled to call for direct Khankandi-Baku talks, trying, amongst
other objectives, to give the separatists forces some legitimacy,
despite this being inconceivable for Azerbaijan. What is, however,
more significant in Yerevan's move is that, by limiting its formal
involvement, it faintly, but not inadvertently, acknowledges the
territorial integrity of its old adversary, albeit keeping open its
options for a belated retraction.
At present, Project Vardanyan is still within its bleak
midwinter, with an external succour providing a brief moment of
relief with no clear perspective on the future. With Baku's
coercive pressure unlikely to lose its momentum, the probable
likelihood is that, in the forthcoming days, a new wave of
frictions and factions inside the separatist clique will make the
Kremlin reconsider its new mode and of behaviour, which will be
influenced by continuously changing the ad hoc situational
alliances within the fraught Moscow-Baku-Yerevan triangle.
Neil Watson, British Journalist, commented:“The sword of
Damocles hangs over this unhappy triangle. The ultimate objectives
of Yerevan and its ally Russia remain vague, other than tentative
attempts to retain the status quo. Internal strife amongst and
between Armenia and its puppet in Karabakh can only help the
Azerbaijani cause and exacerbate the application of some
much-needed common sense.”
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