(MENAFN- Daily Outlook Afghanistan) History at any momentcan be understood as a snapshot, telling us where we are, or as a movingpicture, telling us not just where we are but where we have been and where wemay be headed. It is a distinction with an enormous difference.
Consider East Asia andthe Pacific. A snapshot would show a region at peace, with stable societies,growing economies, and robust alliances. But a moving picture would beconsiderably less reassuring. We may well come to look back on this moment asthe time in which the most economically successful part of the world began tocome apart.
North Korea is onereason. War has been avoided, not because North Korea has done anything toreduce the threat posed by its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, butbecause US President Donald Trump's administration has not matched its fierywords with actions. The nuclear and missile threat posed by North Korea hasactually increased since Trump embraced summitry with Kim Jong-un just over ayear ago.
There is no reason tobelieve that the Kim regime will ever denuclearize. The question is whether itwill agree to place a ceiling on its nuclear capabilities in exchange for somereduction in sanctions – and, if so, whether it lives up to the agreement andwhether neighbors such as Japan believe they can be safe without developingnuclear weapons of their own.
The latter questionmakes the deterioration in relations between Japan and South Korea all the moredisquieting. Japanese officials are uneasy with South Korea's approach to NorthKorea, viewing it as too conciliatory, and are furious with South Korea forreviving its demand that Japan apologize and compensate Korean women abused bythe Imperial Japanese Army before and during World War II. Tensions betweenthese two American allies are spilling over into their trade relationship andwill make it harder to coordinate policy toward North Korea and China.
Then there are theongoing protests in Hong Kong. As mainland control over the former Britishcolony has increased, the 'one country, two systems formula promised in 1997has not played out as the people of Hong Kong had hoped, steadily giving way to'one country, one system. This is unlikely to change, as China is lessdependent on Hong Kong as a financial gateway and is concerned that a liberalapproach toward demonstrators there will signal weakness and encourage protests– and even a leadership challenge – on the mainland. The authorities in Beijingare thus likely to do whatever they believe is necessary to maintain order.
China's turn towardrepression is even more starkly apparent in its policies toward its Uighurminority. At the same time, Deng Xiaoping's careful foreign policy has givenway to a more assertive foreign policy under President Xi Jinping. In the SouthChina Sea, China is militarizing islands in an effort to gain control of thisstrategically vital waterway and intimidate others into abandoning theirclaims. Likewise, with its Belt and Road Initiative, China is providinginfrastructure loans to countries throughout Eurasia, often on onerous termsthat enhance China's access and influence, while yielding questionable benefitsfor the recipients.
Taiwan's future isalso unclear. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment ofdiplomatic relations between the United States and the People's Republic ofChina (PRC). At that time, the US recognized the PRC government as China's solelegal government, but pledged to maintain unofficial relations with the peopleof Taiwan. And in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the US pledged to provide theisland with arms, and stated that it would view with great concern any effortto determine Taiwan's future other than peacefully.
It all made for anarrangement that finessed positions in the absence of a commonly acceptablesolution, one that has worked well for four decades, as Taiwan has become athriving democracy with a booming economy. Differences over Taiwan have notprecluded a viable Sino-American relationship, and the lack of an officialrelationship has not prevented strong US-Taiwan ties.
Now, however, itseems as though Xi may decide to push this issue, as unifying Taiwan with themainland appears to be integral to achieving his 'Chinese Dream. Meanwhile,some in the US and Taiwan advocate closer ties or even recognizing Taiwan as anindependent country. At some point, a crisis is likely to materialize when oneor more parties cross a line the others cannot accept.
A final question markover the region stems from US policy. The US has been central to Asia'ssuccess. Its alliance with South Korea has reduced the chance of conflict onthe Korean Peninsula; and its alliance with Japan has reduced the chance of aJapanese nuclear program or a war between China and Japan over disputedislands.
But Trump haspublicly questioned the value and fairness of both alliances, suggesting thatthey are at risk unless South Korea and Japan pay more and adjust their tradepolicies. And, more broadly, Trump's foreign policy is at its coreunpredictable and disruptive, whereas strong alliances require predictabilityand confidence.
When all of thesesnapshots – a nuclear-armed North Korea, an uneasy Japan, a more assertive andrepressive China, growing impatience over Taiwan, and mounting uncertainty overUS policy – are viewed as a moving picture, it becomes clear that the stabilityunderpinning Asia's unprecedented development can no longer be assumed. It isdifficult to imagine the future being better than the past; it is not at alldifficult to imagine it being worse.
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