China's trade surplus with US balloons

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) China's trade surplus with the United States surged nearly 20 per cent in the first quarter, with some analysts speculating exporters were rushing out shipments to get ahead of threatened tariffs that are spurring fears of a full-blown trade war.

The latest readings on the health of China's trade sector are unlikely to ease tensions following weeks of tit-for-tat tariff threats by Washington and Beijing, though they suggest China's economy is still in relatively solid shape.

Even as China's trade surplus narrowed overall in the first three months of the year, its surplus with the US surged 19.4 per cent to $58.25 billion from a year earlier, customs data showed on Friday.

While China was busy selling more to the US, it was buying more from other countries, and ran a $9.86 billion deficit with the rest of the world in the quarter.

China's overall exports and imports both grew at a strong double-digit clip early in the year, and while exports unexpectedly fell in March - resulting in a rare trade deficit - most analysts chalked it up to seasonal factors and said it was too early to call a trend. Still, while no hard timeline has been set by either Washington or Beijing for the actual imposition of tariffs, analysts said China's exporters may already be adapting their strategies as punitive trade measures loom.

China's first-quarter exports to the US rose 14.8 per cent from a year earlier, despite a 5.6 per cent drop in March. Its imports from the US rose 8.9 per cent in the quarter and 3.2 per cent in March.

That helped narrow its surplus with the US in March alone to $15.43 billion from $20.96 billion in February, but that was still nearly 18 per cent higher than March 2017.

"The sharp decline in March export growth after very solid performance in January and February suggests some exporters may have front-loaded exports [early] this year due to concern over the possibility of a Sino-US trade war after the US hiked tariffs on global imports on solar panels and washing machines," said Lisheng Wang, an economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

"We believe export growth will slow due to yuan appreciation and rising trade tensions... China's imports could be more resilient than exports in our view as China has pledged to increase imports," Wang said.

China's total aluminium exports in March rose to their highest since June, just as the United States imposed tariffs on imports of the metal and steel on March 23.

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