Markets Bet Trump Can't Afford $100 Oil As US Conducts 'Self-Defence Strikes'

The comments come after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets, which they called "self-defence", and renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy markets back into focus.

At the same time, President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran were "proceeding nicely," while warning failure to secure an agreement could send the situation "back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before."

Yet despite the military escalation and increasingly aggressive rhetoric, oil has failed to enter full panic mode and equities remain relatively resilient - a sign investors still believe diplomacy ultimately wins because the economic consequences of sustained triple-digit crude are too severe for Washington to tolerate.

The deVere CEO says markets increasingly believe the White House wants negotiating leverage, not a prolonged conflict that sends oil decisively above $100 and reignites inflation across the global economy.

A sustained move above $100 crude risks feeding directly into gasoline prices, inflation expectations and Treasury yields - three pressures markets are watching simultaneously.

The inflation implications are especially important for investors already highly sensitive to interest rates, borrowing costs and bond yields.

Another oil-driven inflation spike could quickly tighten financial conditions globally and create fresh instability across equities, debt markets and currencies.

Reports suggesting a potential US-Iran agreement may be close have reinforced the broader market view that both sides remain under mounting pressure to secure a deal despite ongoing military confrontations.

Media reports, citing senior US officials, claimed on Monday that negotiations were "95% there," while Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that the Strait of Hormuz "has to be open, one way or the other."

Nigel Green argues markets are increasingly signalling confidence that economic realities will ultimately outweigh military escalation.

Nigel Green says investors increasingly believe economics - not military rhetoric - will determine how the crisis evolves from here.

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