Leopold Aschenbrenner's Q1 2026 13F: $8.5B Bet Against AI Chips

(MENAFN- ValueWalk) The highly followed Q1 2026 Form 13F-HR for Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP was accepted by SEC EDGAR Monday morning before the market open, and it is likely the most followed 13F of this quarter so we wanted to do an analysis. The 25-year-old former OpenAI researcher whose 2024 Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead essay warned about the approaching artificial general intelligence (AGI) has just put on roughly $8.5 billion of notional put exposure against the artificial intelligence semiconductor complex; the bet includes a $2.04 billion put on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and a $1.57 billion put on Nvidia, while simultaneously doubling and tripling his long exposure to Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting.

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What is Situational Awareness LP? The big picture: a $13.68B book, 62% in put options The $8.5 billion bet against AI semiconductors
Is this a directional bet, a hedge, or a volatility structure?
The bullish counter-trade: calls on memory and the GPU cloud The long book: a doubled-down Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-host bet
Why trim Bloom Energy while growing the miners 7x?
The exits: what got kicked out A curious footnote: small stock stubs alongside the big puts How to read the overall trade What we cannot see, the honest caveats Frequently asked questions
What is Situational Awareness LP? How big is Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund? What did Aschenbrenner buy in Q1 2026? Is Aschenbrenner shorting Nvidia? What does it mean that the 13F reports notional values? Why are CleanSpark and Bitfarms in an AI-focused fund? When will we see Aschenbrenner's next 13F?

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