S&P Merval Dips 0.4% As Six Banks Urge Exit From Argentina

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) BYMA / S&P Merval Daily Report · March 6, 2026 · Covering March 5 Session

S&P Merval 2,570,733 −0.36% USD/ARS 1,407 +0.5% Riesgo País 546 bps +10 pts BCRA Buys $124M 35% of supply The Big Three 1 Six global banks - Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and BofA Securities - simultaneously recommended liquidating Argentine bonds. The reports, released Wednesday, warned that Argentina remains“the most exposed market if global sentiment shifts.” Bank of America specifically recommended closing positions in the GD35 (Global 2035). The banks cited negative net reserves, doubts over agricultural liquidation at the current exchange rate, and the continuation of capital controls. The convergence of six institutions on the same day is an unusually strong signal of institutional skepticism. 2 Banking sector reports weak Q4 earnings with rising delinquency, dragging the Merval lower. The equity selloff was sector-specific: Banco Supervielle led losses with −5.1%, while the broader financial sector weighed on the index after Grupo Financiero Galicia and Banco Francés reported significant declines in net income and rising non-performing loan ratios. The banking theme is not Hormuz-related - it reflects the domestic credit cycle tightening under Milei's restrictive monetary policy, with real interest rates remaining elevated and credit scarce. 3 BCRA bought USD 124 million in the spot market, extending its 2026 accumulation streak past USD 2.8 billion. Despite the global risk-off environment and bond weakness, the central bank absorbed 35% of the session's USD 353.9 million spot volume. The dollar mayorista closed at ARS 1,407, still 14.9% below the band ceiling of ARS 1,616.01. The BCRA's persistent buying provides the single strongest counterweight to the negative bond and equity signals. 01 Market Snapshot

Metric	Value	Change
S&P Merval Close	2,570,733	−0.36%
USD/ARS Mayorista	1,407	+0.5% (ARS 6.50)
Riesgo País (JP Morgan)	546 bps	+10 pts
Bonds (Bonares/Globales avg)	-	−1.2%
BCRA Spot Purchases	USD 124M	2026 YTD: >USD 2.8B
BCRA Band Ceiling	ARS 1,616.01	14.9% above spot
Dollar Blue	ARS 1,380	−8.5% YTD 2026
S&P 500	6,869.50	+0.78%
Brent Crude	$82.14	Hormuz closed, day 5
VIX	23.57	−9.2%
DXY	99.01	+0.68%

02 Key Movers

Stock	Change	Note
Aluar (ALUA)	+8.0%	Session's standout gainer; aluminum play on Hormuz commodity premium
Bco. Supervielle (SUPV)	−5.1%	Led losses; banking sector under pressure from weak Q4 earnings

03 Market Commentary

Thursday's session on BYMA produced a modest headline loss - the Merval closed at 2,570,733, down just 0.4% in pesos - but the number masks a deeply troubled undercurrent. The session's defining event was not the equity close but the simultaneous publication of sell recommendations on Argentine bonds by six global banks: Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and BofA Securities. The reports, as summarized by analyst Marcelo Trovato of Pronóstico Bursátil, converged on a central warning: Argentina is the emerging market most exposed if global risk sentiment deteriorates further.

The bond market reflected this immediately. Bonares and Globales averaged losses of 1.2%, reversing Wednesday's gains in full. The riesgo país rose ten units to 546 basis points, having opened at 534 - well off the 598 intraday high touched on Tuesday when the Hormuz crisis was at peak panic, but still elevated by historical standards. In January 2026, the index had briefly breached 500 to the downside for the first time since mid-2018; the reversion to 546 confirms that the Hormuz shock has erased approximately six weeks of spread compression.

The equity side told a more nuanced story. The Merval's 0.4% decline was heavily skewed by the banking sector, where weak Q4 earnings reports from Galicia and Banco Francés revealed rising delinquency rates and compressed net income. Supervielle led the losses at −5.1%. On the other side, Aluar surged 8%, benefiting from the Hormuz-driven commodity premium on aluminum and from its export-oriented revenue profile. Damían Vlassich at IOL noted that“the market has stopped being a uniform block: the difference between a protected portfolio and a vulnerable one lies in exposure to the global logistics chain and energy costs.”

The exchange rate was the session's relative bright spot. The dollar mayorista gained just ARS 6.50 to 1,407, a modest 0.5% depreciation that contrasted sharply with the peso's near-1% daily slide seen earlier in the week. Crucially, the BCRA bought USD 124 million in the spot market - 35% of the USD 353.9 million total volume - extending its 2026 reserve accumulation to over USD 2.8 billion. With the mayorista at 1,407 and the band ceiling at 1,616.01, the peso sits 14.9% inside the band, giving the BCRA substantial intervention room.

04 Currency

The dollar mayorista closed at ARS 1,407, up ARS 6.50 or 0.5% on the session, gaining ARS 10 in the first five days of March. Market operator Nicolás Merino of ABC Mercado de Cambios described the intraday dynamics: each time the exchange rate showed recovery signals, additional supply appeared, capping the move. After touching a session high of ARS 1,411, the rate pulled back to 1,405 before settling at 1,407. The BCRA band ceiling stands at ARS 1,616.01, leaving 14.9% of headroom.

The dollar blue traded at ARS 1,380 - remarkably, below the bank buying rate of ARS 1,375.07. This reflects the“over-dollarization” of portfolios in September–October 2025 ahead of the legislative elections, which is now unwinding as holders sell into the blue market. Dollar Nación (retail) stood at ARS 1,425. The DXY rose 0.68% to 99.01 on global safe-haven flows, but Argentina 's FX dynamics are dominated by local factors - BCRA intervention, agricultural liquidation timing, and capital control mechanics - rather than global dollar strength.

05 Technical Analysis Daily (1D):

Thursday's candle was a small-bodied doji-like formation (open 2,579,970; close 2,570,733; high 2,630,732; low 2,544,060), reflecting indecision after the index briefly tested both upside and downside. The upper wick to 2,630,732 shows attempted buying that was firmly rejected, while the lower wick to 2,544,060 shows the market found support near the 2,505,320 level before recovering into the close.

The MACD is deeply bearish: the histogram sits at −26,503, with the MACD line at −88,028 and signal at −114,531 - both well below zero and widening. This confirms sustained bearish momentum that has been in place since the Merval peaked at its all-time high of 2,973,561 in late February (having hit 3,296,502 on January 28). The RSI readings are the most important signal: at 35.73 and 30.13, the index is at or near oversold territory for the first time since the October 2025 pre-election selloff. The 30.13 secondary reading is touching the classic 30 oversold threshold, which historically has preceded at least short-term tactical bounces in the Merval.

Level	Points	Reference
R3	2,973,561	Feb high / prior ATH zone
R2	2,810,347	upper Bollinger / MA cluster
R1	2,680,300	declining MA / immediate resistance
Close	2,570,733	Mar 5 close
S1	2,505,320	lower Bollinger band
S2	2,455,075	200-day SMA
S3	2,200,000	structural support / Oct 2025 level

06 Forward Look Global Bank Sell Recommendations:

The convergence of six sell calls on Argentine bonds is the most powerful near-term headwind. These reports will filter into institutional allocation decisions over the coming days. The riesgo país at 546 bps has room to re-test the 598 intraday high from March 3 if the sell recommendations trigger further liquidation. A sustained break above 600 would, as analyst Marcelo Falak noted, signal that“financial capital is beginning to leave the country for safer markets.”

U.S. Payroll - Friday, March 6:

A strong U.S. jobs number would reinforce dollar strength and compress EM risk appetite further, widening the riesgo país. A soft reading reopens the rate-cut narrative and could provide relief to Argentine bonds and the peso.

Hormuz and Energy Exposure:

Argentina is uniquely positioned among EM markets on the Hormuz crisis: Vaca Muerta and the energy export profile mean elevated oil prices directly benefit the current account and export duty revenues. However, as StoneX strategist Ramiro Blázquez noted, the“greater risk aversion hurts us on the financial side and the riesgo país.” The net effect depends on the duration and resolution of the crisis - a quick resolution would favor the financial channel (spread compression), while a prolonged crisis favors the energy earnings channel but keeps spreads elevated.

GDP Growth Revision:

ABECEB revised its 2026 GDP forecast from 3.9% to 3.4%, citing weaker-than-expected industrial carry from late 2025 and a cold start to the year. The restrictive monetary policy that supports disinflation also keeps real rates elevated, credit scarce, and the exchange rate appreciated - headwinds for consumption-sensitive sectors. BBVA Research projects 3.0% growth for 2026.

Verdict

The Merval's headline −0.4% loss understates the stress in Argentine assets. The real action was in the bond market, where six global banks simultaneously recommended liquidation, Bonares/Globales dropped 1.2%, and the riesgo país rose to 546. The banks' critique - negative net reserves, doubts over crop liquidation, continued cepo - cuts directly to the structural vulnerabilities that the Milei administration has not yet resolved, even as its fiscal discipline and BCRA reserve accumulation (USD 2.8 billion YTD) represent genuine progress.

Technically, the Merval is approaching oversold territory for the first time since the October 2025 pre-election selloff. RSI at 35.73/30.13 is touching the classic 30 threshold, which historically precedes tactical bounces. The MACD histogram remains deeply negative at −26,503, confirming sustained bearish momentum. The index has shed 22% from its January 28 ATH of 3,296,502 - a textbook bear market in peso terms. The 200-day SMA at approximately 2,455,075 is 4.5% below the current close and represents the next major structural support.

Bias: BEARISH - maintained. The six-bank sell convergence, rising riesgo país, and deeply negative MACD outweigh the oversold RSI and BCRA accumulation. A recovery above 2,680,300 (declining MA) with riesgo país below 520 turns bias Neutral. A break below 2,455,075 (200-day SMA) targets the 2,200,000 structural support.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, Infobae, Rava Bursátil, Perfil, Ámbito, La Nación, El Cronista, Bloomberg Línea, BCRA, and Investing. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.

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