Iran War Make A China Attack On Taiwan More Likely?

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A too-small US Navy, finite war stocks and an atrophied defense industrial base are converging for the US, just as the world gets more dangerous. The US military's perfumed princes and civilian leaders ignored many warnings over the last three decades.

But maybe US allies can make up the difference? Unlikely. Japan is remilitarizing, but has a long way to go. South Korea is a huge arms producer but focuses on North Korea, and it's questionable what Seoul would do in the event of a Taiwan conflict.

Leftist President Lee Jae-myung and his administration are reluctant to anger China. And President Lee himself said, while a candidate, that what China did to Taiwan was not South Korea's business.

Australia? Its defense force is too small, as is its defense industry. The Europeans are hard-pressed looking after themselves, much less to help with Taiwan, even if they wanted to.

No 'sure thing' for Beijing

That all said, Xi would be rolling the dice if he moves against Taiwan. If unsuccessful, it would cost him his position, legacy and perhaps more. The Chinese Communist Party does not tolerate such failure.

And even if successful, it would isolate China as the US and other free nations finally recognize China as an enemy and actually treat it like one. This would hurt, but Xi is sanctions-proofing China's economy and has been warning Chinese citizens to get ready to“eat bitterness.”

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to pull off the balancing act of his lifetime. He's taking on Iran while hoping to avoid another major military problem breaking out elsewhere.

If the US and partners prevail, and a sort of friendly regime takes over in Iran, China is unlikely to move against Taiwan in the near term. Such would be the effect of the demonstration of American will and capability – and the bracing effect on America's partners, even the half-hearted ones.

For now, Xi is watching closely as America draws down its ammunition stockpiles and risks sparking a wider regional conflict, though he can't do much beyond providing targeting data for Iran's missiles and drones and some supportive comments. But the longer the war continues, and the Iranian regime hangs on, the better from Beijing's perspective.