Dubai: Gold Prices To Average $5,300 In 2026 And $5,500 In 2027, IIF Says

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Gold prices appear to be trading in a higher long-term range as the precious metal has become more financialised and increasingly shaped by the global regime shift.

According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), strong central bank buying, ETF flows will support medium-term demand but not drive short-term moves.

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The IIF projected yellow metal averaging $5,300 in 2026 and $5,500 in 2027.

“Gold prices will continue to respond to developments in real yields, the US dollar, global liquidity conditions, central bank buying, and geopolitical risk. Upside risks include a faster-than-expected decline in real yields, renewed financial stress, stronger-than-anticipated ETF inflows, or an escalation in geopolitical tensions that sustain safe-haven demand. Downside risks arise from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, US dollar appreciation, weaker global liquidity, or a slowdown in official-sector purchases,” said Garbis Iradian, chief economist, Mena and Central Asia, at IIF.

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“Overall, while gold appears structurally better supported than in previous cycles, its price trajectory will ultimately reflect the evolution of these key drivers rather than a mechanical continuation of recent gains,” he said in the new note.

After reaching a record high of $5,500 earlier this year, gold prices were trading around the $5,000 mark on Thursday.

The yellow metal was trading at $4,982.19 per ounce, up 1.94 per cent. It fell below $4,920 earlier in the day, but recovered the losses later.

In the UAE, 24K gold price was trading at Dh600.75, 22K at Dh556.25 and 21K at Dh533.5 per gram.

“Gold may be trading in a higher long-term range, but its future path will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic and financial conditions. Baseline projections are derived by applying the estimated post-2010 quarterly sensitivities to assumed paths for global real yields, the US dollar, global liquidity, risk sentiment, ETF flows, and central bank purchases,” said Iradian.

“Under a soft-landing scenario characterised by gradual monetary easing, a mildly weaker US dollar, improving global liquidity, and sustained official-sector demand, gold prices are expected to remain elevated through 2026–27, although the pace of gains should slow as macro tailwinds gradually fade. Under this baseline, gold prices are projected to average around $5,300 an ounce in 2026 and $5,500 an ounce in 2027, with end-year levels higher,” he said.

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