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Palladium's Holiday Whiplash: A Rally, A Washout, And A New Range Test
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
Palladium steadied near $1,64x after a violent year-end reset that followed a three-year high.
Futures open interest fell as volatility spiked, while ETF inflows rose even as assets dropped on price.
Policy signals on emissions and critical minerals added fuel, but thin liquidity made the swings extreme.
Palladium opened the new year trying to look normal again, after a week that was anything but. Around 07:56 UTC, TradingView 's XPDUSD feed showed roughly $1,648.3 an ounce.
Reuters had spot near $1,639 in early European dealing. Retail screens such as Kitco showed a wider band, roughly $1,634 bid and $1,674 ask.
The bounce followed brutal holiday-season selling and fast profit-taking. A widely circulated desk comment from Tim Waterer at KCM Trade said metals were“making amends for the year-end selling,” with fundamentals returning to center stage.
Still, the damage is visible on the weekly bar. The week printed about 1,967.6 high and 1,485.2 low, settling near 1,648.0, a weekly drop near 14.25%.
Late December mapped the whipsaw. On Dec 24, palladium was reported down over 9% near $1,683.58. By Dec 29, it was reported down 15.9% near $1,617.47. The common explanation was classic: profits, thin liquidity, and risk limits.
Market structure mattered as much as headlines. The CME's Dec 31 daily bulletin showed NYMEX palladium futures volume at 9,717 contracts. Open interest stood at 19,435, down 1,158. That points to de-risking, not just rotation.
ETF behavior was split-brained. For PALL, ETFDB showed five-day net flows of +$37.7 million, and one-month flows of +$113.88 million. Three-month and one-year flows were +$226.66 million and +$354.06 million.
Yet five-day net AUM still fell by $75.39 million, a price-driven hit. Holiday volumes also thinned, at 350,608 shares on Dec 30, 269,988 on Dec 31, and 198,044 on Jan 1.
Fundamentals kept a floor under the narrative. Europe 's tightening emissions direction extends catalytic demand, and can lift PGM loadings per vehicle.
The U.S. decision to list palladium and platinum as critical minerals also encouraged stock-building. WPIC's outlook warns the balance can swing, with 2025 near deficit and 2026 drifting toward surplus.
Technicals now argue for consolidation. Weekly RSI sat near 62.9, while daily RSI was near 53.3. The 4-hour RSI hovered around 48.6, with momentum stabilizing but not yet commanding.
Traders are watching $1,570–$1,620 as support, and $1,700–$1,790 as resistance. The next sessions, with full liquidity back, will decide if this is repair or retreat.
Palladium steadied near $1,64x after a violent year-end reset that followed a three-year high.
Futures open interest fell as volatility spiked, while ETF inflows rose even as assets dropped on price.
Policy signals on emissions and critical minerals added fuel, but thin liquidity made the swings extreme.
Palladium opened the new year trying to look normal again, after a week that was anything but. Around 07:56 UTC, TradingView 's XPDUSD feed showed roughly $1,648.3 an ounce.
Reuters had spot near $1,639 in early European dealing. Retail screens such as Kitco showed a wider band, roughly $1,634 bid and $1,674 ask.
The bounce followed brutal holiday-season selling and fast profit-taking. A widely circulated desk comment from Tim Waterer at KCM Trade said metals were“making amends for the year-end selling,” with fundamentals returning to center stage.
Still, the damage is visible on the weekly bar. The week printed about 1,967.6 high and 1,485.2 low, settling near 1,648.0, a weekly drop near 14.25%.
Late December mapped the whipsaw. On Dec 24, palladium was reported down over 9% near $1,683.58. By Dec 29, it was reported down 15.9% near $1,617.47. The common explanation was classic: profits, thin liquidity, and risk limits.
Market structure mattered as much as headlines. The CME's Dec 31 daily bulletin showed NYMEX palladium futures volume at 9,717 contracts. Open interest stood at 19,435, down 1,158. That points to de-risking, not just rotation.
ETF behavior was split-brained. For PALL, ETFDB showed five-day net flows of +$37.7 million, and one-month flows of +$113.88 million. Three-month and one-year flows were +$226.66 million and +$354.06 million.
Yet five-day net AUM still fell by $75.39 million, a price-driven hit. Holiday volumes also thinned, at 350,608 shares on Dec 30, 269,988 on Dec 31, and 198,044 on Jan 1.
Fundamentals kept a floor under the narrative. Europe 's tightening emissions direction extends catalytic demand, and can lift PGM loadings per vehicle.
The U.S. decision to list palladium and platinum as critical minerals also encouraged stock-building. WPIC's outlook warns the balance can swing, with 2025 near deficit and 2026 drifting toward surplus.
Technicals now argue for consolidation. Weekly RSI sat near 62.9, while daily RSI was near 53.3. The 4-hour RSI hovered around 48.6, with momentum stabilizing but not yet commanding.
Traders are watching $1,570–$1,620 as support, and $1,700–$1,790 as resistance. The next sessions, with full liquidity back, will decide if this is repair or retreat.
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