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Brazil's Financial Morning Call For January 2, 2026
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Latin America's markets largely reopen today after the New Year's Day holiday, with Brazil's B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region's deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products.
Mexico's Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally. However, Ecuador and Bolivia treat January 2 as a national holiday.
This creates blurred conditions with potential disruptions to trading, clearing, settlement, liquidity gaps, and slower back-office processing. As a result, investors may rely more on FX, ADRs, and derivatives.
Brazil's central ban significantly increased gold purchases by 33% in Sep–Nov 2025, adding 42.8 tons to holdings (from 129.6 to 172.4 tons), as part of reserve diversification (dollar share down to 78.45%) amid rising global risks, viewing gold as insurance against issuer credit risk.
Gold is 6.5% of the US$360.6 billion reserves, with market value nearly doubling in 2025 to US$23.3 billion.
Cogna (COGN3) surged 239.78% in 2025, driven by steady execution, stronger revenue in the Kroton higher-education unit, continued deleveraging, cash generation, a return to net profit after losses since 2020, taking Vasta private, and dividend announcements.
In contrast, Raízen (RAIZ4) collapsed 62.50% due to high debt, weaker operations, asset sales targeting R$10–15 billion over 18 months (with more than R$3 billion already raised), a R$10 billion parent injection, and the ending of the Femsa convenience-store JV.
These two contrasting stories highlight the mixed drivers behind the Ibovespa's strong 2025 rally, which gained 33.95% to reach 161,125.37.
Guinness World Records certified Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro as the world's largest New Year's Eve celebration on December 30, 2025. Expected attendance on the Copacabana–Leme shoreline was 2.5–3.0 million, with about 5 million across Rio.
The event featured 13 stages, 12-minute fireworks from 19 barges, and a drone light show. It boosted tourism, with 2 million international visitors in December as part of more than 9 million for the year, and increased global visibility for Brazil.
Economic Agenda for January 2, 2026
Brazil
Mexico
United States
Implication and Why These Events Matter: Brazil's Manufacturing PMI offers early insight into industrial activity at the start of 2026, following 2025's mixed signals, while Foreign Exchange Flows provide visibility on capital movements post-holiday and year-end.
Mexico's PMI tests manufacturing resilience in the region. In the US, Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending are key for global sentiment and dollar flows, especially with thin liquidity early in the year - these indicators matter for carry trade positioning, commodity demand, and EM currency strength amid Brazil's high yields and recent real appreciation.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday (Before Year's End – December 30, 2025)
Brazil's Ibovespa finished 2025 at 161,125.37 (up 0.40% on the last day, +34% annual gain - best since 2016) after a late boost from stronger-than-expected labor data (November net formal jobs +85,864, unemployment to 5.2% low - series record, real earnings record high at R$3,574).
The real strengthened to R$5.4890 USD/BRL close, embracing a“soft landing” narrative. Session mixed genuine optimism with year-end mechanics and selective cyclical rallies.
Read more
Commodity Markets
Gold – Reset to record highs with a year-end flush and fresh bid. Gold trading around $4,375–$4,379/oz on first full trading morning of 2026 after pullback from near $4,550 record (Dec 26), driven by year-end positioning, thin holiday liquidity and higher futures margins; now stabilizing with fundamentals refocusing.
Read more
Copper – Holiday calm hides a tight market squeeze and policy test. Pausing near highs after late-December surge and year-end whipsaw; supply tightness from mine disruptions, strong demand from electrification/grid/data-centers; LME 3-month ~$12,537.5/tonne,
COMEX ~$5.7380/lb.
Read more
Silver – Year-start whiplash shows leverage, margins, and thin liquidity driving the tape.
Iron Ore – New year reset with benchmark shift meets softer steel and rising China stocks.
Palladium – Holiday whiplash: a rally, washout, and new range test.
Platinum – New year surge tests a tiny market's limits.
Aluminium – Holds near multi-year highs as inventories, premiums, and soft dollar steer trade.
Currency
Brazilian Real – Closed strong at R$5.4890 USD/BRL at year-end 2025 (approx. 11.2% appreciation from ~R$6.16 start), reflecting outperformance driven by high yields (Selic at 15%), strong labor market (unemployment 5.2% low), and global USD weakening (DXY -9.5%), though supported more by rate differential and technical flows than pure capital inflows.
Read more
Companies and Market
Key Developments
. Cogna (COGN3) surged 239.78% in 2025 on steady execution, stronger revenue in Kroton higher-education unit, continued deleveraging, cash generation, return to net profit in 2024 (ending loss streak since 2020), taking Vasta private, and dividend announcements.
. Raízen (RAIZ4) collapsed 62.50%, trading below R$1 for extended periods, due to high debt, weaker operations, asset sales (target R$10–15 billion over 18 months, >R$3 billion raised), R$10 billion parent injection by Cosan (backed by BTG Pactual and Perfin), and ending Femsa convenience-store JV.
Broader market focus on 2025 Ibovespa strength (jobs surprise lift, real appreciation) with fiscal strains and mixed confidence as carry-over themes.
Ibovespa futures and positioning point to consolidation into 2026, balancing domestic labor/yield support against global holiday thinness and regional calendar differences unless surprises emerge in limited data.
Note: Cryptocurrencies showed a thin-liquidity bounce on first trading morning of 2026 (Bitcoin near 88,800, Ethereum ~3,018), relief rally rather than clean breakout amid fragile demand and ETF flow swings.
Read more
Mexico's Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally. However, Ecuador and Bolivia treat January 2 as a national holiday.
This creates blurred conditions with potential disruptions to trading, clearing, settlement, liquidity gaps, and slower back-office processing. As a result, investors may rely more on FX, ADRs, and derivatives.
Brazil's central ban significantly increased gold purchases by 33% in Sep–Nov 2025, adding 42.8 tons to holdings (from 129.6 to 172.4 tons), as part of reserve diversification (dollar share down to 78.45%) amid rising global risks, viewing gold as insurance against issuer credit risk.
Gold is 6.5% of the US$360.6 billion reserves, with market value nearly doubling in 2025 to US$23.3 billion.
Cogna (COGN3) surged 239.78% in 2025, driven by steady execution, stronger revenue in the Kroton higher-education unit, continued deleveraging, cash generation, a return to net profit after losses since 2020, taking Vasta private, and dividend announcements.
In contrast, Raízen (RAIZ4) collapsed 62.50% due to high debt, weaker operations, asset sales targeting R$10–15 billion over 18 months (with more than R$3 billion already raised), a R$10 billion parent injection, and the ending of the Femsa convenience-store JV.
These two contrasting stories highlight the mixed drivers behind the Ibovespa's strong 2025 rally, which gained 33.95% to reach 161,125.37.
Guinness World Records certified Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro as the world's largest New Year's Eve celebration on December 30, 2025. Expected attendance on the Copacabana–Leme shoreline was 2.5–3.0 million, with about 5 million across Rio.
The event featured 13 stages, 12-minute fireworks from 19 barges, and a drone light show. It boosted tourism, with 2 million international visitors in December as part of more than 9 million for the year, and increased global visibility for Brazil.
Economic Agenda for January 2, 2026
Brazil
08:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Cons: Prev:48.8
12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: Prev:-6.472B
Mexico
10:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Cons: Prev:47.30
United States
09:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Cons:51.8 Prev:52.2
10:00 AM BRT – Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct) Cons:-0.1% Prev:0.2%
Implication and Why These Events Matter: Brazil's Manufacturing PMI offers early insight into industrial activity at the start of 2026, following 2025's mixed signals, while Foreign Exchange Flows provide visibility on capital movements post-holiday and year-end.
Mexico's PMI tests manufacturing resilience in the region. In the US, Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending are key for global sentiment and dollar flows, especially with thin liquidity early in the year - these indicators matter for carry trade positioning, commodity demand, and EM currency strength amid Brazil's high yields and recent real appreciation.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday (Before Year's End – December 30, 2025)
Brazil's Ibovespa finished 2025 at 161,125.37 (up 0.40% on the last day, +34% annual gain - best since 2016) after a late boost from stronger-than-expected labor data (November net formal jobs +85,864, unemployment to 5.2% low - series record, real earnings record high at R$3,574).
The real strengthened to R$5.4890 USD/BRL close, embracing a“soft landing” narrative. Session mixed genuine optimism with year-end mechanics and selective cyclical rallies.
Read more
Commodity Markets
Gold – Reset to record highs with a year-end flush and fresh bid. Gold trading around $4,375–$4,379/oz on first full trading morning of 2026 after pullback from near $4,550 record (Dec 26), driven by year-end positioning, thin holiday liquidity and higher futures margins; now stabilizing with fundamentals refocusing.
Read more
Copper – Holiday calm hides a tight market squeeze and policy test. Pausing near highs after late-December surge and year-end whipsaw; supply tightness from mine disruptions, strong demand from electrification/grid/data-centers; LME 3-month ~$12,537.5/tonne,
COMEX ~$5.7380/lb.
Read more
Silver – Year-start whiplash shows leverage, margins, and thin liquidity driving the tape.
Iron Ore – New year reset with benchmark shift meets softer steel and rising China stocks.
Palladium – Holiday whiplash: a rally, washout, and new range test.
Platinum – New year surge tests a tiny market's limits.
Aluminium – Holds near multi-year highs as inventories, premiums, and soft dollar steer trade.
Currency
Brazilian Real – Closed strong at R$5.4890 USD/BRL at year-end 2025 (approx. 11.2% appreciation from ~R$6.16 start), reflecting outperformance driven by high yields (Selic at 15%), strong labor market (unemployment 5.2% low), and global USD weakening (DXY -9.5%), though supported more by rate differential and technical flows than pure capital inflows.
Read more
Companies and Market
Key Developments
. Cogna (COGN3) surged 239.78% in 2025 on steady execution, stronger revenue in Kroton higher-education unit, continued deleveraging, cash generation, return to net profit in 2024 (ending loss streak since 2020), taking Vasta private, and dividend announcements.
. Raízen (RAIZ4) collapsed 62.50%, trading below R$1 for extended periods, due to high debt, weaker operations, asset sales (target R$10–15 billion over 18 months, >R$3 billion raised), R$10 billion parent injection by Cosan (backed by BTG Pactual and Perfin), and ending Femsa convenience-store JV.
Broader market focus on 2025 Ibovespa strength (jobs surprise lift, real appreciation) with fiscal strains and mixed confidence as carry-over themes.
Ibovespa futures and positioning point to consolidation into 2026, balancing domestic labor/yield support against global holiday thinness and regional calendar differences unless surprises emerge in limited data.
Note: Cryptocurrencies showed a thin-liquidity bounce on first trading morning of 2026 (Bitcoin near 88,800, Ethereum ~3,018), relief rally rather than clean breakout amid fragile demand and ETF flow swings.
Read more
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