Musk's $1 Trillion Tesla Bet Hinges On Robotaxis, Robots And 20 Million Cars

Shareholders of Tesla, Inc. have backed what may become the largest pay-out ever awarded to a corporate chief executive. On 6 November 2025, more than 75 per cent of voters approved a compensation package for Elon Musk - structured around 12 tranches of restricted stock - that could yield up to $1 trillion over the next decade, contingent on an array of steep performance and valuation targets. Under the scheme, Musk's compensation becomes payable only if Tesla hits a series of“moonshot” milestones including delivering 20 million vehicles, operating 1 million commercial robotaxis, producing 1 million humanoid robots, building up 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions and achieving up to $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA, alongside elevating the company's market capitalisation from roughly $1.5 trillion today to $8.5 trillion.

The scale of the package underscores how deeply Tesla's future strategy now depends on high-risk bets in AI, robotics and autonomous mobility. According to the terms, each milestone unlocks a portion of equity, and missing any could drastically reduce the payout; even after adjustments the net value of the full payout is cited by Tesla as $878 billion. Shareholder support appears partially rooted in concern that Musk might leave if the incentive were rejected - the board indicated that without the package his continued stewardship was not guaranteed.

Investors and analysts remain sharply divided over the feasibility of the targets. The requirement to deliver 20 million vehicles by 2035, for instance, would demand a sustained annual production rate comparable to the world's largest automakers. As of 2025, Tesla has produced around 8 million vehicles in total - implying that achieving the target would require more than doubling past output over the next decade. Meanwhile, commercial roll-out of the company's intended autonomous ride-hailing network, Tesla Robotaxi, remains nascent. The service was launched in limited fashion in Austin, Texas, earlier this year, but current operations involve only a handful of vehicles under human supervision. Scaling that to a fleet of 1 million fully autonomous vehicles would require not only massive manufacturing capacity but also clear regulatory approval across multiple jurisdictions.

On the robotics front, the delivery of 1 million humanoid robots - developed under the moniker Optimus - also faces steep technical and commercial hurdles. Production is still in prototyping stage; there is no guarantee that the robots will ever gain mass-market traction or competitive pricing. Meanwhile, the hunt for 10 million active FSD subscriptions underscores Tesla's bet on software and services becoming a major revenue stream - yet uptake remains modest, and the company has offered limited public data on conversion rates from existing hardware users.

Among the financial aspirations, the plan to hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA - roughly 25 times Tesla's 2024 earnings - appears especially ambitious. Reaching such profitability would likely require doubling down on high-margin businesses beyond car sales, including robotaxi ride-sharing, AI services, robotics rentals or sales, and possibly new ventures.

Faculty at governance observation bodies and some institutional investors had warned the plan risked diluting shareholder value and entrenching Musk's control over Tesla. Concerns also linger over whether the targets amount to promises based more on ambition than on realistic projections, especially in light of Chinese and European automakers aggressively expanding EV output and autonomous mobility offerings.

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