(MENAFN) The Federal Reserve approaches its December 9-10 policy meeting navigating a critical information void, yet market consensus increasingly points toward a 25 basis point reduction despite internal divisions among central bank leadership.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confronts an unprecedented challenge as it prepares to set monetary policy for year-end: a data desert created by the historic US government shutdown that has left officials operating partially blind.

Following the conclusion of America's longest-ever government shutdown on November 12, federal agencies scrambled to restore publication schedules. However, vital October metrics—including employment figures and inflation readings—remain absent because collection systems were paralyzed during the closure.

Central bank policymakers have compensated by scrutinizing belatedly released September statistics from official sources alongside privately generated alternative datasets, though this patchwork approach offers incomplete visibility into economic conditions.

The available information paints a contradictory picture of labor market health, while recent alternative measurements have amplified fears of employment deterioration.

Employment landscape
The US Department of Labor reported September non-farm payrolls expanded by 119,000—surpassing forecaster predictions—even as the unemployment rate climbed from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Fresh weekly data from the department this week revealed initial unemployment claims dropped to 191,000 for the period ending November 29—the lowest reading since September 2022.

Conversely, the ADP Research Institute delivered a jarring counterpoint: private sector employment contracted by 32,000 positions in November, defying expectations for growth and representing the steepest decline since March 2023.

Outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported American employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November—a 24% year-over-year surge despite monthly improvement.

Through the initial eleven months of 2024, layoff announcements soared 54% compared to the corresponding 2023 period, totaling precisely 1,170,821 job eliminations.

The FOMC delivered a 25 basis point reduction at its October gathering, and speculation now centers on whether deteriorating employment indicators—despite contradictory signals—will prompt another quarter-point adjustment next week.

MENAFN06122025000045017169ID1110445825