(MENAFN- AsiaNet News)

• Polymarket traders tilted bullish, with most betting on BTC closing above $95,000 by year end.
• Confidence among Kalshi bettors in a $100,000 close dropped 19 points since Wednesday.
• PlanB outlined three possible paths going forward: bear reset, fake bull, or a stable institutional range. 

Even as Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $90,000 this week, prediction markets are showing that traders don't think the apex cryptocurrency will be able to climb back above $100,000 by the end of the year.

Polymarket bettors are repositioning their bets. Data shows 74% bettors now believe Bitcoin has a chance of closing above $95,000, while only 41% see a chance that BTC might close above $100,000 by the end of the year. Meanwhile, 30% are betting that BTC will close below the $80,000 mark.

Data on Kalshi's prediction market showed similar sentiment. An event created in November named 'Will Bitcoin cross $100k again this year?' has only 44% participants seeing chances of Bitcoin making it to $100,000 again. As of Wednesday, 63% of the participants were confident that Bitcoin would hit the $100,000 mark, which has now seen a 19-point drop. 

Bitcoin was trading at around $91,400, with a 1.72% fall in the last 24 hours. The trading volume for the asset has also decreased by 16.47% in the same time period. The market sentiment on Stocktwits continues to be in 'bearish' territory, with message volumes at 'normal' levels over the past day. 

BTC retail sentiment and message volume on December 5 as of 7:29 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

PlanB's Bitcoin Prediction

According to crypto analyst PlanB, Bitcoin is poised to enter a different post-halving phase than it has historically, with the current fallacy being that it is still exhibiting signs from the previous cycle. He notes that in the past, Bitcoin downdrafts occurred in 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022, and that each culminated with Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) at approximately 55.

PlanB predicted there are three potential outcomes. The first is a bear market reset, as seen in previous cycles, whereby Bitcoin could drop by at least 50%, and prices would fall beneath $50,000. The second scenario is a“fake bull market” where current bullishness leads to consolidation, and then the next stage of a significant movement upward occurs, as seen during 2019. 

However, PlanB's base case states that we are now in a“new normal” environment due to increasing institutional involvement in Bitcoin, and that the development of a new, lower RSI range (55-75) will stabilize Bitcoin's price. Additionally, he notes that the simple moving average (SMA) and Bitcoin's realized price are both near $56,000, suggesting support for his theory that large institutional flows will temper volatility through ongoing portfolio rebalancing.

Read also: Genius Group Boosts Bitcoin Treasury 30% With $1M Profit in Q4

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