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Argentina's Quiet Dollar Masks Risky Rally In Stocks
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
The peso looks calmer, but a blue dollar near the official rate signals a fragile, policy-managed truce rather than a lasting fix.
Equities surged as reform hopes and a weaker global dollar drew buyers into banks, energy and utilities, pushing the Merval toward record territory.
Gains were broad, with big winners in financials and energy and only a few modest losers, showing how much local money is betting on market-friendly policy.
Argentina's markets went into Thursday with an unusual mix: a quiet dollar, falling country risk and a stock exchange that refuses to cool down.
On the currency side, the official wholesale dollar traded around 1,453 pesos, unchanged, while the blue rate hovered slightly stronger than the regulated market near 1,430–1,440.
Financial dollars still carry a small premium, with the MEP near 1,470 and the CCL just above 1,500, but the gaps have narrowed to single digits.
That calm rests partly on a softer global backdrop. The dollar index has slipped toward the high-90s as investors price in imminent Fed cuts, easing pressure on emerging currencies and making high-beta plays like Argentina more palatable.
Equities seized the moment. The S&P Merval jumped 2.9% in pesos to roughly 3.13 million points, brushing against its nominal high and gaining more than 3% in dollar terms thanks to a cheaper CCL and demand for sovereign bonds.
Five names show who is riding the new optimism. Grupo Supervielle rallied 6.3%, Central Puerto 6.2%, Metrogas and Transportadora de Gas del Norte around 5% each, and BBVA Argentina roughly 4.7%.
All sit at the intersection of banks, energy and regulated utilities – sectors that thrive on clearer rules, enforceable contracts and a state that lives within its means.
Losers were scarce and mild. Banco de Valores slipped 1.7%, with Ternium and Aluar down less than 1%. After the violent swings of recent years, a session where the worst performers barely move looks almost like a luxury.
Technically, the four-hour chart for USD/ARS shows momentum fading around 1,452, while daily and weekly trends still point to a slow, controlled crawl weaker. The peso is not cured, but panic has been replaced by a managed slide that investors, for now, are willing to tolerate.
The peso looks calmer, but a blue dollar near the official rate signals a fragile, policy-managed truce rather than a lasting fix.
Equities surged as reform hopes and a weaker global dollar drew buyers into banks, energy and utilities, pushing the Merval toward record territory.
Gains were broad, with big winners in financials and energy and only a few modest losers, showing how much local money is betting on market-friendly policy.
Argentina's markets went into Thursday with an unusual mix: a quiet dollar, falling country risk and a stock exchange that refuses to cool down.
On the currency side, the official wholesale dollar traded around 1,453 pesos, unchanged, while the blue rate hovered slightly stronger than the regulated market near 1,430–1,440.
Financial dollars still carry a small premium, with the MEP near 1,470 and the CCL just above 1,500, but the gaps have narrowed to single digits.
That calm rests partly on a softer global backdrop. The dollar index has slipped toward the high-90s as investors price in imminent Fed cuts, easing pressure on emerging currencies and making high-beta plays like Argentina more palatable.
Equities seized the moment. The S&P Merval jumped 2.9% in pesos to roughly 3.13 million points, brushing against its nominal high and gaining more than 3% in dollar terms thanks to a cheaper CCL and demand for sovereign bonds.
Five names show who is riding the new optimism. Grupo Supervielle rallied 6.3%, Central Puerto 6.2%, Metrogas and Transportadora de Gas del Norte around 5% each, and BBVA Argentina roughly 4.7%.
All sit at the intersection of banks, energy and regulated utilities – sectors that thrive on clearer rules, enforceable contracts and a state that lives within its means.
Losers were scarce and mild. Banco de Valores slipped 1.7%, with Ternium and Aluar down less than 1%. After the violent swings of recent years, a session where the worst performers barely move looks almost like a luxury.
Technically, the four-hour chart for USD/ARS shows momentum fading around 1,452, while daily and weekly trends still point to a slow, controlled crawl weaker. The peso is not cured, but panic has been replaced by a managed slide that investors, for now, are willing to tolerate.
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