(MENAFN- The Rio Times) With just over 40 percent of ballots counted, Hondurans are split almost down the middle. Nasry“Tito” Asfura, a pro-business former mayor of Tegucigalpa, leads with a little over 40 percent.

Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla is close behind, just under that mark. Ruling-party contender Rixi Moncada trails near 20 percent, and is already hinting she may not accept the result.

On paper this is a normal transition after four years of the country's first left-leaning government.

In reality, the vote feels like a referendum on who gets to decide Honduras' future: its 10 million citizens, a U.S. president, or networks of foreign investors.

Voters are choosing a new head of state, a full Congress and local authorities in a country still marked by migration, gang violence and fragile institutions.

Donald Trump jumped into the race days before voting. He urged Hondurans to back Asfura, warning that economic aid could be at risk if his preferred candidate loses.

He also promised a full pardon for former president Juan Orlando Hernández, jailed in the United States for running the country as a drug corridor while selling himself as a tough-on-crime ally.


Trump-Backed Asfura Takes Early Lead As Honduras Tests Its Sovereignty
The intervention turned a tight local contest into a test of how far Washington can lean on a small partner.

Hernández did more than tilt security policy. He opened the door to ZEDEs, special zones that hand wide powers to private boards in exchange for investment and jobs.

The boldest of them, Próspera on the Caribbean island of Roatán, is a kind of start-up city.

It offers ultra-low taxes, flexible regulation, and private arbitration aimed at reassuring capital. Its backers include well-known technology investors who see it as a showcase for a leaner state.

When Xiomara Castro took office, she vowed to scrap those zones, calling them a threat to national sovereignty. Her government repealed the ZEDE law and moved to rein in Próspera.

The project's backers, including several high-profile tech billionaires, responded with an international lawsuit that at one stage sought damages worth roughly a third of Honduras' annual output.

For many Hondurans, this election is less about left versus right than about order versus uncertainty.

A win for Asfura or Nasralla would likely mean a friendlier climate for investors and a quieter relationship with Washington.

A Moncada victory, or a contested count, would deepen a clash between elected authorities and private city-builders who are testing how far global money can bend a small democracy.

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