Tesla Stock Soars: Analyst Warns FSD Could Make Legacy Carmakers 'Obsolete,' Musk Finds It 'Crazy' They Don't Want It
- Tesla reported more than 6.5 million miles driven on its latest FSD software. Melius analyst Rob Wertheimer said the newest FSD version is the“spark” behind his view that hundreds of billions in value could shift toward Tesla over the next five years. The analyst also highlighted progress on Tesla's AI5 chip and its expanding in-house chip program.
Tesla Inc. shares logged their best session in more than two months after a Melius Research analyst argued that the company's push in Full Self-Driving software is placing unprecedented pressure on legacy automakers. The optimism followed updated data showing that more than 6.5 million miles have been driven by vehicles equipped with Tesla's latest FSD software.
The stock closed up 6.8% at $417.78 on Monday and added another 0.3% in after-hours trading.
Analyst Flags Tesla's FSD Scale As Threat To Legacy Carmakers
In a note to investors, Melius analyst Rob Wertheimer said his team now expects“hundreds of billions in value” to shift toward Tesla over the next five years. He said that the“spark” behind his view is the most recent version of Tesla's FSD software, which he said is contributing to a world that is“about to change, dramatically,” according to a MarketWatch report.
Wertheimer also said Tesla's ability to gather vast amounts of real-world driving data gives it a meaningful lead over traditional carmakers pursuing autonomy. He described many legacy automakers as far behind and suggested that Tesla's progress could render rivals“obsolete.”
Tesla's current ride-hailing operations in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area rely on Model Y vehicles with safety monitors, but the company aims to remove human oversight in Austin by year-end. It also plans to operate in at least seven cities by December and begin producing its dedicated robotaxi, the Cybercab, in April.
The analyst pointed to Tesla's camera-only approach to autonomy and highlighted Elon Musk's push toward the next-generation AI5 chip, expected to power Optimus robots and future vehicles beginning in 2027. The remarks followed Musk's explanation of Tesla's internal chip program, where he said the company has deployed“several million AI chips,” is close to taping out AI5, and is already working on AI6 as part of a rapid yearly upgrade cycle.
Legacy Automakers Slow To Adopt FSD, Musk Says
Reacting to the analyst's note, Musk said in a post on X that he has attempted to help rivals adopt Tesla's system. "I've tried to warn them and even offered to license Tesla FSD, but they don't want it! Crazy," he said. "When legacy auto does occasionally reach out, they tepidly discuss implementing FSD for a tiny program in 5 years with unworkable requirements for Tesla, so pointless."
Competitive Landscape
Wertheimer's note contrasted Tesla's rapid iteration with the slower approach taken by Waymo, the Alphabet-backed robotaxi that currently runs fully autonomous services in five cities. He said Waymo's higher vehicle costs and slower scaling pace could work against it even as the company prepares for more expansions.
Among legacy manufacturers, the analyst argued that companies like General Motors and Ford are not positioned to match Tesla's pace in autonomy. Meanwhile, smaller players such as Amazon's Zoox may struggle to scale at the level Tesla expects.
Stocktwits Bears Doubt Safety And Chip Ambitions
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was 'bearish' amid 'normal' message volume.
One user said the market is overlooking Tesla's basic safety issues even as Musk claims the company will outproduce every major chipmaker.
Another user questioned,“Will you buy something that's not going to happen in the next 5 years? It is just a fantasy to keep stock pumping.”
Tesla's stock has risen 3% so far in 2025.
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