(MENAFN- Market Press Release) November 20, 2025 1:39 am - October 2025 commercial vehicle data reveals a split market: India sales surge 17.7% as Europe demand falls. Analysis of Eicher's success, FedEx's EV investment, and the milestone of 55-ton electric truck commercialization.

The latest Global Commercial Vehicle Market Pulse report for October 2025 shows a widening divide between major regions, with Asia continuing to expand and Europe facing persistent weakness. The analysis highlights India as the world's fastest-growing major commercial vehicle market, while European demand remains constrained by inflation and high financing costs.

According to the report, India recorded retail sales of 107,800 commercial vehicles in October, an increase of 17.7% year on year. Preliminary figures for Europe indicate declines across light commercial vehicles and heavy trucks, reflecting operators' caution in replacing fleets amid tighter credit conditions and softer freight demand.

Market Fragmentation Becomes More Pronounced
The October data point to an increasingly fragmented global commercial vehicle landscape. While macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and fuel costs are common across markets, their impact on purchasing decisions varies by region.

In Europe, inflation has compressed margins for road freight operators, particularly small and medium-sized fleets that dominate the sector. Higher borrowing costs have lengthened replacement cycles and contributed to weaker order books for manufacturers.

By contrast, several emerging economies, led by India, are benefiting from continued public infrastructure investment, recovering freight flows and targeted policy support for cleaner transport. Seasonal factors, including the festive period in India, added further momentum to logistics demand in October.

Within this picture, the report identifies two trends that became more visible during the month: the growing role of electric powertrains in commercial operations, and the increasing influence of large logistics operators on the pace of electrification.

Europe: Prolonged Weakness in Key Segments
The report notes that European commercial vehicle demand has remained subdued through the first three quarters of 2025. Illustrative registration data for January to September show light commercial vehicles down around 8.2% and heavy trucks down 9.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.

Analysts attribute this performance to a combination of weaker freight volumes in some sectors and the cost of capital. For many operators, the economics of replacing or expanding fleets remain challenging, even as regulatory pressure and sustainability targets encourage investment in newer, more efficient vehicles.

One exception is the bus segment, which is estimated to be maintaining growth of around 3% in Europe. Government spending on public transport, fleet renewal and low-emission bus programs has supported demand. As a result, manufacturers and suppliers are calibrating production and inventory strategies differently across segments.

India: Growth Momentum and Policy Support
India's commercial vehicle market continued to expand in October, reinforcing its status as a key growth engine in Asia. The report links the 17.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales to several factors: the resumption of highway and logistics infrastructure projects, a rebound in goods movement from small and medium-sized enterprises, and strong activity related to the festive season.

National and state-level policies designed to encourage the adoption of electric buses and light commercial vehicles are beginning to influence purchasing decisions, particularly in urban transport and municipal fleets. Combined, these factors are positioning India as a priority market for both domestic and international manufacturers and suppliers.

Company Example: Eicher's Export-Led Expansion
As an illustration of how manufacturers are responding to these conditions, the report highlights the performance of Eicher (VECV). The company recorded sales of 7,771 units in October, up 12.4% year on year, with exports increasing by more than 130% as it expanded into markets in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia.

Eicher's focus on relatively lightweight powertrains, cost-efficient specifications and an expanding service network is seen as aligned with demand in developing and price-sensitive markets.

Technology Shift: Heavy-Duty Electric Trucks Enter Commercial Use
The report also documents a technology milestone in India: the deployment of 55-ton electric trucks for heavy-duty logistics. These vehicles, now operating in commercial, revenue-generating service rather than pilot trials, are being used in applications such as industrial haulage and long-distance freight corridors.

Battery-swapping infrastructure is described as a key enabler. By allowing“refueling” times of under five minutes, swapping supports high utilisation rates and makes electric trucks more viable in duty cycles that previously relied on diesel. The development is expected to inform future electrification strategies in sectors including ports, mining and bulk materials transport.

Corporate Strategy: Logistics Operators Shape the Pace of Change
In North America, the report notes that FedEx has strengthened its electrification strategy with a US$160 million investment in electric vehicle startup Harbinger and an order for 53 electric delivery vans. This move is intended to support lower fuel and maintenance costs over the vehicle life cycle.

Analysts suggest that large orders from global logistics companies can have an outsized impact on technology adoption. By committing to specific platforms and suppliers, major fleets help establish production scale and give visibility to component suppliers. The report expects such commitments to support faster EV penetration in urban and suburban delivery fleets in North America over the next two years.

Outlook: Divergent Paths and Emerging Business Models
Looking ahead to the full year, the Global Commercial Vehicle Market Pulse report expects Europe to record a modest contraction in commercial vehicle sales in 2025, while India is forecast to maintain double-digit growth.

From 2026 to 2030, the report identifies several factors likely to shape the sector globally. Regulatory developments, including the European Union's General Safety Regulation and forthcoming Euro 7 standards, are expected to continue influencing vehicle design and safety content worldwide. Supply chains may increasingly differentiate between high-growth value markets such as India and more regulation-driven markets such as Europe, leading to variations in product specifications and sourcing strategies.

Electrification is also expected to accelerate the emergence of new business models, including transport-as-a-service, battery leasing and expanded service and data-driven offerings. Regional divergence is expected to remain a defining feature of the market over the medium term. For manufacturers, suppliers, fleet operators and investors, the analysis concludes that region-specific, data-driven strategies will become increasingly important as the commercial vehicle sector moves toward a more electric, connected and automated future.

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