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Dollar Holds Near 5.33 As Fed Doubts And Cheap Oil Test Brazil's Currency Rally
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Brazilian real paused on Thursday morning, with the dollar trading around 5.33–5.34 reais after a third straight session of gains.
The move capped a choppy day in which global investors reassessed how far the United States Federal Reserve is really willing to go in easing policy while key economic data are missing.
Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting showed an unusually split committee. Officials cut rates by 0.25 percentage point, but many warned against going further while inflation remains above the 2% target and fresh labour-market numbers are delayed.
With the October payroll report cancelled and a combined October–November release pushed to mid-December, markets increasingly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its 10 December meeting.
That shift lifted the dollar index back above 100 and supported the U.S. currency against most majors and emerging-market peers.
For Brazil, the external backdrop was doubly uncomfortable. Brent crude for January delivery fell just over 2%, to about $63.5 a barrel, weighing on commodity exporters.
Real weakens as dollar stays rangebound
At the same time, local traders used the stronger dollar as an excuse to take profits after a year in which the real has still appreciated by close to 14% against the U.S. currency.
Seasonal end-of-year demand for dollars, as companies remit profits and households prepare for holidays abroad, added to the pressure.
Underlying fundamentals remain comparatively solid. With the Selic rate standing at 15%, Brazil still offers one of the world's most generous nominal yields, a key attraction for investors wary of loose money and swollen public deficits elsewhere.
But those yields are no longer enough on their own to push the dollar lower. Technically, the exchange rate is trapped between support around 5.27–5.30 and resistance near 5.34–5.36, still well below the 200-day moving average close to 5.55.
Momentum indicators on the four-hour chart point to a modest short-term bias in favour of the dollar, while the daily chart suggests a broader sideways pattern.
Unless either U.S. data or Brazilian fiscal headlines deliver a clear surprise, USD/BRL looks set to oscillate nervously inside that band rather than pick a decisive trend.
The move capped a choppy day in which global investors reassessed how far the United States Federal Reserve is really willing to go in easing policy while key economic data are missing.
Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting showed an unusually split committee. Officials cut rates by 0.25 percentage point, but many warned against going further while inflation remains above the 2% target and fresh labour-market numbers are delayed.
With the October payroll report cancelled and a combined October–November release pushed to mid-December, markets increasingly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its 10 December meeting.
That shift lifted the dollar index back above 100 and supported the U.S. currency against most majors and emerging-market peers.
For Brazil, the external backdrop was doubly uncomfortable. Brent crude for January delivery fell just over 2%, to about $63.5 a barrel, weighing on commodity exporters.
Real weakens as dollar stays rangebound
At the same time, local traders used the stronger dollar as an excuse to take profits after a year in which the real has still appreciated by close to 14% against the U.S. currency.
Seasonal end-of-year demand for dollars, as companies remit profits and households prepare for holidays abroad, added to the pressure.
Underlying fundamentals remain comparatively solid. With the Selic rate standing at 15%, Brazil still offers one of the world's most generous nominal yields, a key attraction for investors wary of loose money and swollen public deficits elsewhere.
But those yields are no longer enough on their own to push the dollar lower. Technically, the exchange rate is trapped between support around 5.27–5.30 and resistance near 5.34–5.36, still well below the 200-day moving average close to 5.55.
Momentum indicators on the four-hour chart point to a modest short-term bias in favour of the dollar, while the daily chart suggests a broader sideways pattern.
Unless either U.S. data or Brazilian fiscal headlines deliver a clear surprise, USD/BRL looks set to oscillate nervously inside that band rather than pick a decisive trend.
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