Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Brazil's Financial Morning Call For November 20, 2025


(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's markets are closed today for Black Awareness Day, giving traders a forced pause after three straight losing sessions that left the Ibovespa at 155,380 points and the dollar near R$5.34.

The Banco Master liquidation shock and Fed minutes that cooled December-cut hopes dominated sentiment yesterday. However, longer-term positives are stacking up.

Brazil continues to lead the BRICS in foreign direct investment, with a US$1.14 trillion stock equivalent to 46.6% of GDP. The steel industry is successfully pivoting to exports.

Renault and Geely have committed R$3.8 billion to electrified-vehicle production in Paraná. Meanwhile, Mexico's Asur is acquiring Motiva's 20-airport portfolio for R$11.5 billion in a quiet regional power play.

With B3 shut, global data - especially today's crucial U.S. jobs report - will set the tone for Friday's reopening.
Economic Agenda for November 20, 2025
Brazil

  • All Day – Black Awareness Day (B3 closed)
    Implication: No local data or trading; Ibovespa reference 155,380.66. Post-holiday flows will react to U.S. payroll surprise.

Mexico

  • 08:30 AM BRT – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (spillover)
  • 10:00 AM BRT – Banxico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    Implication: Dovish minutes + soft U.S. jobs = potential MXN rally despite debt concerns.


United States (key prints only)

  • 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (cons 53K vs prev 22K)
  • 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (cons 4.3%)
  • 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (cons 0.3%)
  • 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production MoM
  • 10:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (cons 4.08M)
    Implication: Weak payrolls or soft wages revive Fed-cut odds → USD lower → relief for BRL and EM assets.

Other notable global events (3 key only)

  • 02:00 AM BRT – Swiss Trade Balance (Act 4.319B, miss)
  • 02:00 AM BRT – German PPI MoM (Act +0.1%, beat)
  • 08:00 AM BRT – South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision (exp cut to 6.75%)
    18:30 BRT – Japan National Core CPI (cons 3.0%)

Brazil's Markets Yesterday
Ibovespa –0.73% to 155,380.66 (third consecutive drop). Banking sector hit by Banco Master fallout; meatpackers led the decline (Marfrig –8.6%, Minerva –4%). Dollar closed around R$5.34.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +2.8% pre-earnings; markets snapped four-day losing streak.

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
Peso stable ~18.35; IPC +0.13%. Resilience despite public-debt warnings.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
Merval –2.1%; FX gap narrowed to 2-3% but liquidity thinned.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
Peso near three-year highs; COLCAP –0.5% but +40% YTD.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
IPSA +0.7%; peso resilient in low 930s after post-election gains.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
Consolidated with mild weakening as DXY held above 100 and Brent slipped. Support 5.27–5.30; resistance 5.34–5.36.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin ~$92,000 after brief dip below $90k. ETF outflows continued but whales accumulated aggressively.

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Companies and Market
. Steel sector: October exports +28% (907k tons) while domestic sales –6.5%; growing reliance on external markets amid weak construction/auto demand and Asian imports.

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. Renault & Geely: R$3.8 billion investment to upgrade Paraná plant for new electrified models from 2026 onward.

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. Motiva → Asur (Mexico): R$11.5 billion sale of 20 airports (17 in Brazil); Motiva refocuses on highways/rail, Asur becomes one of the largest airport operators in the Americas.

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. Ongoing Banco Master liquidation and Credit Guarantee Fund recapitalization pressure on major banks.

Markets reopen Friday. Enjoy the holiday.

MENAFN20112025007421016031ID1110372254



The Rio Times

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