Boe December Rate Cut Now 'Very Likely'
UK inflation rising to 3.6% in the year to October, a fall from the three preceding months, means a Bank of England rate cut in December is now very likely, predicts the CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.
The prediction from Nigel Green comes as the latest official figures show that consumer price inflation in the UK has cooled to 3.6% in October, down from 3.8% in September.
At the same time, the Bank of England's November Monetary Policy Committee minutes reveal the committee voted by a narrow 5-4 majority to maintain the Bank Rate at 4%, with four members preferring an immediate 0.25 percentage-point cut.
These twin developments suggest the stage is being set for a December rate adjustment.
Nigel Green comments:
For investors, the shift triggers a different dynamic. A lower Bank Rate reduces the discount applied to future earnings, altering valuations across equities, bonds and real assets.
Nigel Green states,
Various segments, long-duration equities, infrastructure, real-estate plays and selected credit, typically attract interest at the onset of an easing cycle, though firms and investors must still manage fundamentals and timing.
The macroeconomic backdrop provides further justification for a cut. The Bank of England judges that inflation has peaked and notes growing slack in the labour market even as wage growth moderates.
With growth weak, consumption subdued and business investment muted, the environment aligns with a rate-cut narrative.
Savers previously benefited from elevated deposit rates during the recent high-rate regime. As the Bank shifts, those gains will unwind.
Nigel Green advises:
Investors must also prepare. Falling policy rates open an opportunity window, but they do not erase risk.
“Lower rates alter the framework, but they don't replace rigorous selection. The re-pricing begins when a cut is expected, not when it happens. Those who wait may see the move priced in ahead of them.”
Currency and global-flow effects add further layers.
He concludes:
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