(MENAFN- The Conversation) Immigration has become a hot-button issue in Australia, particularly amid specious claims it is responsible for the housing crisis and straining the economy.

Recent anti-immigration rallies across the country have brought it further into the public spotlight.

With the next federal election less than three years away and the Coalition set to release its migration policy very soon, there have been some claims that more than one million new migrants could become citizens by 2028.

It is a dramatic claim, but it does not stack up.

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics tell a more complex story. Yes, overseas migration has surged since the COVID pandemic, but most migrants are here temporarily.

In other words, few will become Australian citizens in the next few years.

Record migration numbers

Australia recorded an historic high of 739,000 arrivals in 2022–23. After accounting for people leaving the country that year, that is a net gain of 536,000 people. The following year, net overseas migration went down to 446,000.

In addition, not everyone in that group is new to Australia. One in six were in fact returning Australians or New Zealand citizens.

What has really changed is who is coming. Twenty years ago, less than half of new arrivals held a temporary visa. Now, it is closer to 70%. These temporary migrants are mainly international students, working holidaymakers, and skilled workers.

In contrast, the number of permanent visas that let people settle long-term and eventually become citizens has barely changed in a decade, sitting at about 190,000 a year. This imbalance means a smaller proportion of newcomers will stay for good and become citizens.

Fewer migrants settling long-term

To find out what happens to migrants, we have tracked over seven years the visa journeys of 2.5 million temporary migrants who arrived between 2006 and 2016. The results show just how much migration patterns have shifted.

Almost half of those who arrived in 2016 had left Australia within seven years. Another 14% were still on temporary visas, double the proportion recorded a decade earlier. Only one in five had become Australian citizens.

If this trend continues, fewer than 150,000 of the roughly 1 million 2022–24 temporary arrivals will be Australian citizens by 2028. That's almost ten times fewer than the 1.3 million some have claimed. And that is optimistic, given it usually takes longer than five years to become a citizen because of processing times.

Most students and backpackers don't stay

International students now make up nearly half of all temporary arrivals. Visitors, working holidaymakers, and temporary skilled workers make up most of the rest.

But many do not settle in Australia. About half of international students leave once they finish studying, and around 70% of working holiday-makers leave Australia within seven years, most within two years of arrival. These figures suggest most temporary migration programs are operating as intended by supporting circulation and exchange, not permanent settlement.

The group most likely to stay are temporary skilled workers, who were brought in to fill gaps in the labour market. Close to 70% become permanent residents or citizens within seven years.

The rise of 'permanent temporariness'

There is another side to this story. While many temporary migrants leave, a growing proportion is staying on temporary visas for longer.

In 2004, only about a third of permanent visas were granted to people already living in Australia. Today, it is around 60%. This is the new face of Australian migration: a system built on“multi-step migration”, with most migrants arriving on a temporary visa, then holding multiple temporary visas before applying for permanent residence.

That shift has helped employers fill skills shortages quickly. But it has also created a group of people who live, work and pay taxes long-term without the certainty and rights of permanent residents.

A bigger debate about the kind of migration we want

Australia's reliance on migration to drive economic growth, fill labour shortages and mitigate population ageing is not new. What is new is the growing divide between temporary and permanent migrants.

Economically, temporary migration delivers clear benefits. But socially, it raises difficult questions. What happens when hundreds of thousands of people live here for years without being able to settle down or plan for the future?

The idea that more than a million new citizens will appear before 2028 simply does not hold up. The real issue is more complicated. It is about how we manage a system that increasingly relies on temporary workers, many of whom will never become citizens, even after years of contributing to the Australian economy and society. It is about managing social cohesion by ensuring we do not create inequalities between those who can settle permanently and those who cannot.

Temporary migration has quietly become one of Australia's defining policy challenges. Getting it right means thinking not only about numbers, but about people and the kind of Australia we want to build together.

MENAFN18112025000199003603ID1110363077