(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brent and WTI are starting the week on the back foot, trading just under 64 and 60 dollars a barrel after giving back part of Friday's risk premium.

The immediate trigger was the resumption of crude loadings at Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where Ukrainian strikes had briefly interrupted exports equal to roughly 2% of global supply.

Once it became clear that tankers were docking again, traders who bought the scare on Friday began taking profits. The pullback caps a choppy seven days in which Brent swung between 62.7 and 65.2 dollars and WTI between 58.5 and just above 61.

Mid-week, prices sold off sharply when OPEC's latest outlook implied that, by 2026, the cartel and its partners will be supplying almost exactly what the world consumes.

That message, reinforced by a hefty U.S. crude inventory build, convinced many that barrels are more abundant than politicians in producer capitals like to admit.



Fundamentals support that view. The IEA still sees global demand growing, but at a modest pace of around 0.8 million barrels a day in both 2025 and 2026.
Oil steadies in surplus market despite geopolitical noise
Meanwhile, non-OPEC supply keeps rising, led by U.S. producers who respond quickly to price signals rather than political slogans.

Saudi Arabia has trimmed its official selling prices into Asia to keep customers, while Russia is being forced to move Urals crude at deep discounts as new sanctions bite, even when export terminals come under fire.

Across the benchmarks, Dubai and Murban are holding in the mid-60s, and Oman/Dubai markers sit close to Brent, underlining how narrow the spreads are in a world that simply has plenty of crude.

Financial flows tell a similar story: oil-linked ETFs have seen cautious inflows over the past week, but long-term money has been drifting out for months, preferring assets less exposed to policy shocks.

Technically, the market looks like it is trying to build a base rather than launch a new bull run. On four-hour charts, both Brent and WTI are consolidating in tight ranges, with momentum indicators turning slightly positive.

Daily charts, however, still show prices locked below declining 200-day moving averages. Until disciplined supply and real demand-not politically driven interventions-push benchmarks decisively above the mid-60s, every spike driven by war, sanctions or rhetoric is likely to meet a wall of selling.

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